Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slowly easing SE winds over the weekend with slowly easing SE swell, biggest Sat
• Long period flukey S swell showing Sat a’noon and into Sun 
• Long period S swell pulses Mon/Tues next week with favourable N-NE winds
• Small NE windswell Tues with winds tending offshore
• Increase in E/NE swell likely by Wed
• E/NE swell filtering down from trough block at increasing levels from Thurs next week, extending into next weekend with winds looking good

Recap

Not a great deal of change in the recap from Wed with a constant S tending SE flow generally providing a very ratty surf in the 3-5ft range, with some subtle ups and downs. There has been some rideable but smaller surf into more protected bays but generally it’s a been a very mediocre to poor week of surf due to the prevailing winds generated by the record breaking high moving through the Bight.

Another very "meh" day as far as wave quality goes- SE winds will ease over the weekend

This weekend (July 6-7)

Just a few small tweaks to the weekend f/cast. We’re still being dominated by the record breaking (1044hPa) high in the Bight, although it is  very slowly easing as it moves towards Tasmania. Coastal pressure gradients are taking a little longer to ease than expected but we should start to see a drop in windspeeds through Sat a’noon. Sat still looks pretty wind affected with the sea state unlikely to have settled down after a week of constant S-SE wind. There should be a few semi-clean options around in the morning in the 3-4ft range, mostly SE swell with some traces of long period S swell as a faint signal. By the a’noon windspeeds should be down to 10kts so there’ll be some messy but workable beachies around with an easing SE swell in the water.

Winds continue to ease into Sun with a morning SW breeze tending light SE then E’ly. We should still see winds shift more NE south of Jervis Bay. The prevailing SE swell will have dropped right back to 2 occ. 3ft , 2ft or less by close of play with some traces of long period S swell still in the water. If you can find a straight S facing beach or reef there should be an inconsistent 2-3ft set available but it will be flukey and not showing everywhere. 

Next week (July 8 onwards)

By Mon the high should be right in the middle of the Tasman, with winds shifting N-N/NE during the day and freshening as a trough approaches from the west. As mentioned by Craig the polar storm track is being steered into the New Zealand corridor sending L-XL surf to Pacific targets. Sideband energy from the fetch before it gets steered by the long wave trough will supply small S groundswell pulses and Mon should see a notch more energy with 3ft sets at S facing beaches and reefs. That energy should extend into Tues before easing.

By Tues a freshening N/NE flow off the NSW Coast should see a small signal of NE windswell mixed in with some E/NE swell off the top of the high. Nothing major- 2 possibly 3ft on the sets but winds should improve as they tend NW and W/NW as a trough clears the coast. Those offshore winds make Tues worth pencilling in.

The second half of next week should have more of a summer flavour as far as swell direction goes with a signal of E/NE swell developing. Winds should be favourable as a weak, troughy gradient tends mostly offshore W-W/SW, tending pre-frontal NW Thurs and then more W-W/SW Fri as a frontal system pushes through NSW. 

The “trough block” pattern mentioned on Wed looks to set-up as the clearing trough Mon sets up a long N-S oriented line in the Tasman to Coral Seas and focusses a long E’ly fetch through this vast area. Windspeeds are the limiting factor but we should see a steady increase in E-E/NE swell from Thurs into next weekend- likely building from 2-3ft Thurs into the 3-4ft range by next weekend as a conservative estimate. There’s medium/high confidence in that outlook and winds should be favourable. That swell should persist into early week 15/7 with a possible return S swell on the cards once a front/low moves into the Tasman. 

Come back in on Mon and we’ll fine-tune size and local winds.

Until then, have a great weekend!