Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jun 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Trough still sitting off NSW Central Coast brings tricky wind outlook for end of week
• Should be SW-W/SW from Sydney north tomorrow, SW-S/SE south of Sydney
• Fun blend of E’ly swells Thurs with a late kick in short range S/SE swell
• Small, fun blend of S/SE and E/SE swells Fri with offshore winds north of Sydney
• Trough deepens over the weekend with offshore winds likely Sat, may tend fresh W/SW-SW Sun
• Fun E-E/NE swells Sat, extending into Sun
• A’noon increase in S swell likely Sun as low forms in trough line
• Back to back S swells Mon/Tues with offshore winds
• Strong winter-calibre front expected mid next week with sizey S swells from Thurs extending into next weekend
• Dynamic outlook so check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Mondays very solid S swell quickly eased during the a’noon as the swell generating low dipped in behind the Green Cape corner. Yesterday saw small, clean surf to 2-3ft with a small bump in new E-E/NE swell to 3ft in the a’noon. That swell is hanging in there this morning at similar size, groomed by offshore winds and offering up some tasty peaks on the beachies.

Worth the dawny

This week (Jun 5-7)

We’ve got high pressure over the continent, a weak cell in the Coral Sea and a cell over New Zealand, with generally weak pressure gradients over the East Coast. Troughy remnants remain off the North Coast and South Coast interior and these troughs are expected to deepen and reform into another surface low through Fri into the weekend with another round of E/NE infeed swell and S swell although much more subdued than last weekends swell. Details below.

In the short run todays troughy S’ly change runs out of steam quickly but the locus of the trough will create a divide with S-S/SE winds south of the trough and SW-W/SW winds north of the trough. At present it looks like areas south from Botany Bay will see the S’ly flow and areas north of the Harbour will benefit from the offshore flow. There’ll be a mix of E/NE swell to 2-3ft and some new short range S/SE swell from winds feeding into the trough up to 3ft. Quality will very much depend which side of the trough you are on but as a rule of thumb- OK to good north of the harbour and poor on the Illawarra. Keep an eye on local winds though , it will only take a minor wobble from the trough for winds to change.

The trough looks to dissipate on Fri and again we are looking at a tricky wind outlook. Sydney northwards is likely to see winds from the W, even tending NW while we may see a lingering S’ly about the Illawarra and southwards. Again, model divergence makes the position of the trough and local winds subject to low confidence. We’ll see some fun S/SE swell to 2-3ft and some small E/SE swell from a lingering fetch near the North Island of similar size.  Depending on local winds there should be some fun waves around.

This weekend (Jun 8 - 9)

The trough looks to deepen off the NSW Central Coast this weekend with a southwards moving E/NE infeed into the developing trough of low pressure. We’ll do a final tweak of winds on Fri but at this stage we’re looking at a W tending W/SW flow for Sat, likely increasing in strength through the day. E to E/NE swells should bump up to 3ft with occ. 4ft sets offering really nice waves under offshore conditions. The caveat is if the low forms further north and brings SW-S winds. 

Fresh W/SW-SW winds are on the table for Sun as a surface low develops off the Central Coast. Compared to last weekend’s low this one is weaker and further away with a fetch less well aligned. Expect an undersized start with new S swell building to 3-5ft during the a’noon. 

Next week (Jun 10 onwards)

The weekend’s low is connected to a deeper front and a following front (see below) Mon now looks to provide supplementary energy from the S early next week. 

We should see more 3-5ft S swell Mon, easing temporarily before rebuilding Tues to a similar size or notch bigger. Winds look pretty good as high pressure moves into the Tasman. Light offshores Mon tending S’ly and by Tues we should see light offshore winds tend NW-N through the day.

A temporary easing before (as mentioned on Mon) the first winter calibre front and associated low of the season sweeps into the Tasman (see below).

Expect a freshening pre-frontal NW flow Wed, tending W’ly through the a’noon.

We’ll then see a series of mod/strong S’ly pulses later Thurs, and extending through Fri and into next weekend. 

We’ll fill in details as we get closer to the event but these swells should be in excess of 6ft, possibly 8ft at exposed breaks.

Let’s see how they look on Fri.

Seeya then.