Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 7th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun sized SSE-SE swell easing Wed with NE winds developing
• Rebuild in SE-E/SE swell Wed, peaking Thurs with NE winds, tending NW in the a’noon
• Small E/SE swell leftovers Fri with offshore winds
• Small mixed bag this weekend- mostly E’ly swell
• Small surf continues into early next week
• S swell on the cards for later next week- nothing major at this stage

Recap

Fun sized S-SSE swell yesterday was in the 2-3ft range across most S facing beaches, bigger 3-4ft across the Hunter with clean conditions under variable winds for most of the morning before NE’lies kicked in. Today is seeing more SE angled swell with size maxing out in the 3ft range across the Hunter and Central Coast, a little smaller across the rest of the region. Conditions were groomed at S facing beaches under a light NW flow with a freshening NE to N flow setting up through the day as a rain bearing trough approaches from the interior.

Cleanest and biggest at S facing beaches today

This week (June 7-9)

The evolution of the current pattern has sped up compared to Monday’s notes with high pressure drifting towards the South Island and weakening and a low centred around the North Island moving NE. A developing fetch off the top of the North Island is just scraping the edge of our swell window (better aimed at the sub-tropics). An approaching decaying front and inland trough will bring a more offshore flow beginning tomorrow with the end of the week seeing small, offshore conditions. 

In the short run we’ll see SE-E/SE swell peak from an earlier incarnation of the low which produced a fetch out of Cook Strait and the West Coast of the North Island. Expect some 3ft+ sets through the morning with a fresh N’ly flow. Through the a’noon we’ll see an easing trend in size, somewhat offset by improving winds as they tend more NW, possibly even W/NW in the latter part of the a’noon. A small amount of NE windswell will supply some minor 2ft energy through the a’noon.

Friday should be a good mop up day with offshore W’ly winds grooming peaky 2ft leftovers. We should see winds tilt more W/SW and even SW on the Illawarra as a front pushes into the Tasman.

This weekend (June 10-11)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Offshore winds Sat morning should tend to light/mod S’lies before dropping back late in the a’noon under a weak pressure environment. Not much size is expected- just a small mixed bag with leftover E/SE swell to 1-2ft and a small pulse of more E’ly swell from the fetch off the top of the North Island, likely in the 2 to occasional 3ft range at open beaches.

Light land breezes Sun should extend well into the day before light NE seabreezes kick in as high pressure move off the South Coast. Another small, mixed bag down a notch on Sat with inconsistent E’ly quarter swells and traces of S swell in the 2ft range or less offering up a few options on the beachies. 

Next week (June 12 onwards)

A low energy surf environment extends into next week with high pressure in the Central Tasman and weak N’ly winds across temperate NSW. Not much surf at all expected for Mon and Tues. More small E’ly swell in the 1-2ft range (closer to 1ft) with some traces of S swell in the mix. 

E’ly swell ebbs away by mid week leaving tiny surf under an offshore flow as a front pushes through from the west. 

Models are still divergent on the front, but a small increase in S swell can be pencilled in for Thurs, with potential for more size Fri if the front forms a small low in the Tasman.

More frontal activity suggests typical S oriented swells as we move into next weekend 17-18/6 and beyond although there’s nothing to suggest any great size at this stage.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up as well as take a last look at the weekend.