Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 5th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S’ly groundswell Mon, easing into Tues
• Fun sized SSE swell Tues, easing Wed with NE winds developing
• Rebuild in SE-E/SE swell Wed, peaking Thurs with NE winds, tending N-NW on Thurs
• Small E/SE swell leftovers Fri with offshore winds
• Small mixed bag this weekend
• Small surf continues into early next week
• Possible trough/low forming mid next week with swell potential- check back Wed for updates

Recap

Saturday was the last day of clean conditions with a morning peak in still-strong S swell to 4ft across S facing exposures, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter and light offshore winds which eventually tended SE in the a’noon. Surf eased through the day. Onshore winds made a mess of Sunday with scrappy 2-3ft surf on offer, smaller away from open beaches. Onshore winds are with us again today as a strong high pressure ridge sits along the Eastern Seaboard with a messy 3-4ft S swell on hand, bigger 4ft+ at magnets, still building but with low quality across the region. 

Glassy barrels Sat morning

This week (June 5-9)

After a much more settled, stable May the first week of June is looking like a temporary back-slide into a more La Niña-esque pattern. A huge (1035hPa) high is sitting E of Tasmania with a low pressure system straddling New Zealand. The high is directing moist onshore winds right up the Eastern Seaboard, while the low has several swell producing fetches associated with it, albeit nothing too major. Let’s dive in.

In the short run and compared to Friday’s expectations the low centred around New Zealand is a little weaker with the fetch locked further north. That’ll see mid period SSE swell from a slightly off-axis fetch in the 3-4ft range, with some bigger sets on the Hunter. Onshore winds will still be a problem, likely tending from E/NE to NE through the day. We may see a window of light land breezes in the morning but expect lump and bump leftover from todays onshore flow.

Winds will tend more true N to NE Wed, with a light morning NW breeze more likely. SSE swell to 3-4ft will ease through the day but we should see an earlier arrival of SE-E/SE swell from winds out of Cook Strait and off the west coast of the North Island which establish today (see below). That should see some better angled sets in the 3-4ft range, holding through Thurs. 

N’ly winds should start to tend NW through Thurs as a decaying front approaches from the interior. Pencil in Thurs as the potential best day of the week.

The front passes through Fri, bringing a clearing W’ly flow which quickly tends W/SW through SW. Clean 2ft leftovers from the E/SE are on the menu for Fri, mostly from the edge of the fetch just above the North Island. We'll keep tabs on that fetch in the event more of it extends into our swell window above the swell shadow of the North Island.

This weekend (June 10-11)

Not much action expected this weekend at this point. The front brings a weak fetch out of Bass Strait that is unlikely to amount to much more than 1-2ft across the Hunter on Sat, tiny elsewhere. We’ll see how it shapes up through the week. A trough forms in the Tasman but a resulting S’ly fetch is located northwards and looks weak so not much size from that source. Looks like we’ll be relying on small, leftover E/SE swell to supply a few 2ft sets at exposed beaches. Light morning land breezes should tend to light SE winds as a high slips off the South Coast into the Tasman.

Winds will tend NE on Sunday as the high moves away from the coast into the Tasman. Nothing much doing swell-wise. A small blend of S and SE swells to 1-2ft will about it. Likely a few rideable waves at S facing beaches and magnets.

Next week (June 12 onwards)

Quiet start to next week. High pressure moves across the Tasman. The remnants of a trough form a weak fetch of SSE winds off the North Island that is likely to send some small (1-2ft) SE swell to the region. We may see some small NE windswell develop during Mon/Tues depending on the strength of the N’ly flow off the Central/Mid North Coast but it’s nothing worth getting excited about.

Mid next week looks a little more exciting, with a front pushing through, bringing offshore winds then a trough potentially deepening off the NSW coast. We may see some NE swell from the infeed into the trough, with potential for S-SE swell if the trough deepens or forms a surface low.

Models are still offering mixed messages on this outcome and confidence is low this far out. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up on Wed.

Seeya then.