Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Solid rebuild in S swell Fri with variable winds tending N’ly in the a’noon
• Mid-sized S swell Sat with NW-N winds before a S’ly change in the a’noon
• SE’ly winds Sun, increase in mediocre short range S swell 
• Strong S’ly groundswell Mon, easing into Tues
• Fun sized SSE swell Tues/Wed, easing into Thurs
• Fun sized E/SE swell likely Fri, easing into Sat
• Small surf likely next weekend

Recap

Straight-lined S swells eased through yesterday with a few 2-3ft sets in the morning dropping back to the 2ft range or less through the a’noon under dreamy light offshore to variable breezes. Today has seen new S swell fill in to 3ft across most of the region’s S facing beaches, bigger 4ft on the Hunter. Conditions are a bit raw/lumpy under light/variable offshore winds, expected to tend NE through the day with swell still on a building trend.

More S swell lines but not as groomed as previous pulses

This weekend (June 3-4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Todays pulse from the S should hold nicely into tomorrow morning with 3-4ft surf widespread across S facing surf zones and bigger sets to 5ft across the Hunter and other more direct S’ly exposures. Early winds look great as todays high pressure cell slips quickly offshore and a light W-NW flow establishes in a weak pressure environment. That should extend into the post-lunch session before a trough bring variable winds and a front bring a S’ly change.

By Sunday a high will have slipped SE of Tasmania with a ridge up the NSW coast and winds straight out of the SE to E. At least compared to Wed’s notes these winds should be lighter than expected. Conditions will be very mediocre though, with a mix of short range S and mid period S swells supplying some 2-3ft sets, easing during the day. There’ll be waves if you are keen, of mostly below average quality.

Next week (June 5 onwards)

A front pushing aggressively NE into the lower Tasman on the weekend forms a low pressure centre which becomes slow moving near New Zealand early next week and this will be our dominant swell source for the week.

The initial S’ly groundswell should peak Mon with long period S swell offering up plenty of size and juice. We should see strong sets in the 4-5ft range, bigger 6ft at least on the Hunter. Winds will still be an issue with the position of the high directing straight onshore E/SE to E winds but they should stay reasonably light through the day, offering up surfable, albeit bumpy options.

That direct S’ly groundswell eases back into Tues and we’ll see swell direction tend more SSE as the low near NZ directs swell from that position. Light onshore winds continue with improving odds for a morning land breeze Tues into Wed, although we may still see a bit of lump and bump around depending on how far into the evening onshore winds extend.

Expect size in the 3ft range both days, with mid period SSE swell opening up fun options across the region. By Wed we’ll see winds start to shift NE, favouring S facing beaches.

We should see easing swells Thurs with winds tending NW to N.

Friday has some potential with models suggesting a thin fetch of near gales out of Cook Strait Wed next week (see below), with good odds for a nice pulse of fun 2-3ft E/SE swell Fri, coinciding with winds tending NW-W/NW as a complex low approaches from the Bight.

That low system looks to stall into next weekend, suggesting a small weekend with mostly offshore winds.

Medium term and there is some modelled troughiness in the Tasman Sea later next weekend 11/6- we’ll see tabs on any low pressure development along that trough line. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!