Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Heaps of mid period E swell over the weekend with E'ly winds tending more NE Sat a'noon, lighter winds Sun
• S/SE swell in the mix Sat
• Longer period E swell from more tropical sources builds in Mon and extends into Tues/Wed next week with best winds Mon
• Unstable outlook from mid next week into Easter, check back Mon for latest update

Recap

Inclement weather has been the story of the last 48hrs- with a deep E’ly infeed into a trough producing a heap of rain and onshore winds. Surf has been of low quality with a mixed bag of swell trains, mostly in the 3-5ft range. That size has continued into today and straight E’ly winds are making a mess of just about every location. That straight E’ly pattern will break down over the weekend, particularly Sunday, with much better conditions on offer next week. 

Onshore winds are the problem, they will ease over the weekend

This weekend (Apr 9-10)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A large 1031 hPa high straddling Tasmania ( no longer a peanut high) is extending a deep E’ly flow along the f/cast region. TC Fili has weakened and is drifting southwards to the SE now of New Caledonia, anchored by a long fetch of E’ly winds from the cradling high. That equals lots of East swell through the coming days, but we’ve still got some onshore winds to slog through.

Saturday looks the less favourable day of the weekend, with mod E’ly winds through the morning. These winds are expected to tend more NE in the a’noon, which will open up a few S facing beaches to cleaner conditions. There’ll still be plenty of lump and bump everywhere though, so keep expectations pegged as far as quality goes. Surf wise there’ll be a mix of longer period S to S/SE swell in the water to 3-4ft, bigger 4-5ft sets at S facing swell magnets and mid period E swell at a similar size. Plenty of swell energy, no great quality with a chance of improving conditions through the a’noon.

Odds look better for a clean morning on Sunday, with high res EC showing a weak, troughy area of slack wind through the region early Sunday. Assuming winds lay down through Sat evening we should see glassy conditions for the AM session. Plenty of mid-period E swell in the 3-5ft range is expected, along with some easing S/SE swell and a small whack of refracted S swell, which will only show at the most exposed S facing beaches. Expect light winds all day, tending to light E’ly sea breezes in the a’noon.

Next week (Apr11 onwards)

Pencil Mon in for a surf if you’ve got the means to do so. TC Fili will have been slowly drifting through the wide open South Pacific swell window between New Caledonia and the North Island between Fri-Sun (see below) and that will see much better quality of a longer period fill in late Sun, with Mon seeing strong 4-6ft surf from the E. Even better, winds finally co-operate with a light offshore flow expected to last at least through lunch-time before tending to a very late/light Seabreeze. 

E swell continues through Tues, at slightly lower levels although still with plenty of size in the 4-5ft range expected, with a slow easing trend through the a’noon. Winds look to turn a bit problematic on Tues as a trough brings a S’ly change up the coast. Under current guidance this looks like S’ly winds will be entrenched by first light, tending S/SE at moderate strength through the day. That will confine surfing to protected locations if you want clean conditions.

By mid next week models are really struggling to resolve a complex synoptic environment. We’ll still have E’ly swell from the remains of ex-TC Fili which will see surf hold in the 3-4ft range.

The issue will be an area of low pressure moving through the South Australian/NSW interior. Thats likely to combine with a trough line off the NSW coast which may see variable winds, or a more NE flow into the trough, as a weak area of high pressure moves into the Tasman Sea. 

It’s possible these winds will tend more W/NW to NW if the low tracks towards the NSW/Victorian border Thurs into Good Friday. That may see some small NE windswell, cleaning up and mixed in with the easing E swell.

GFS now suggests the low moves offshore later Easter Saturday, possibly deepening Sunday with a rapid rise in S swell.

EC model maintains an interior trough and a N’ly flow along the coast Easter Sat/Sun.

That instability looks to be a feature of the Easter weekend, so we’ll need to come back to it with fresh eyes on Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Check back then and have a great weekend!