Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 6th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mix of developing E and S swell Wed but with onshore winds
• S swell pulse Thurs with onshore winds
• S/SE swell in the mix along with onshore winds Fri/Sat
• Short range E/SE swell likely to build in Thurs with onshore winds and extend through the week and into the weekend
• Longer period E swell from more tropical sources builds in Mon and extends into Tues/Wed next week with lighter winds
• Possible ECL developing off NSW Coast midnext week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Nothing exciting to recap today. Small surf yesterday in the 2ft range, with early clean conditions marred by mod/fresh S’lies which kicked in during the day. Small surf continues into today with an onshore, showery flow making for pretty ordinary fare. The outlook is looking stacked though, so dive in for better news.

Small and clean just before the onshore kicked in- expect plenty more onshore winds this week

This week (Apr 6-8)

The large peanut-shaped high lies diagonally across the Bight and extending down off the East Coast of Tasmania. This is seeing E’ly winds developing in the f/cast region, with this pattern expected to extend into the weekend. In the tropics, TC Fili is now moving SE to ESE, roughly parallel with Grand Terre- the largest island of New Caledonia. TC Fili is expected to become slow moving as it becomes cradled by the peanut high, with a persistent fetch of E’ly winds supplying an extended run of swell from that direction. A strong low which passed through the Tasman is also sending a quantum of longer period S swell our way, likely to be buried in the prevailing mixed up sea state.  Onshore winds are going to be  a problem for the next few days, but the outlook is for a stack of medium sized E’ly swell ahead.

In the short run and E’ly winds really fire up through tomorrow as the high moves East and strengthens, with pressure gradients tightened by an inland trough and the slow moving cyclone. Thats going to make finding a wave hard work but there will be lots of energy in the ocean. A mix of longer period S swell in the 4ft range at S facing beaches and developing short range E swell building from 3ft up into the 3-5ft range during the a’noon. Protected locations will be your best bet but with so much E in the wind, even they will be wind affected. 

Wind remains a problem Friday with E’lies in the 15-20knot range making a mess of surface conditions. Swell will not in short supply though if you can find a piece of bathymetry to make sense of the surf on offer. Stronger S to S/SE swell in the 3-5ft range fills in overnight, with a stronger pulse in the a’noon. That will be mixed with heaps of shorter period E to E/SE swell at a similar size. The coverage of E’ly winds is consistent across the f/cast region, so short of hopping a plane to Coolangatta there won’t anywhere to hide from the wind on Friday. 

This weekend (Apr 9-10)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Onshore winds start to tilt more E/NE through Sat as the dominant high drifts out into the Tasman Sea. Those winds may just ease a notch through later in the day, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on surface conditions, which will be very choppy after days of onshore winds. Better to steel yourself for another go out in messed up conditions. A similar mix of S/SE swell and E swell in the 4ft range is expected, with the S/SE swell easing in the mix through the day.

Sunday sees the E’ly pattern finally start to break down, as the high moves out across the Tasman Sea. A troughy area moves over the f/cast region, leading to a light N’ly flow. Possibly with pockets of more W’ly winds through the morning. Mid period E swell builds a notch into the 3-5ft range and this should see a range of fun surfing options open up. 

Next week (Apr11 onwards)

It’s a fine looking synoptic pattern as far as E swell goes. TC Fili is expected to track into the slot and stall- roughly equidistant between New Caledonia, the North Island and the East Coast of Australia ( see below). At some stage it will lose intensity and become extra-tropical but even as an ex TC the overall cradling fetch of E’ly winds is going to supply days of E’ly swell. 

There’s an intensification of the fetch over the weekend, likely as TC Fili undergoes extra-tropical transition and this leads to a stronger pulse of E’ly swell to start next week. Monday looks great with light winds, tending N’ly and 4-5ft of E swell lighting up most of the region. It shouldn’t be hard to find good surf on Mon.

Tuesday repeats the dose. More mid period E swell in the 4-5ft range ( a few 6footers at the better E swell magnets are on the cards, so bring a step-up). Winds are an issue Tues.

A trough and potential ECL forming may see winds swinging W to W/NW, which is great news. We also may see a S’ly change through the region, which is not so great news. Check back Fri and we’ll finesse the winds.

Into mid next week and, potentially, all hell breaks loose again. GFS model suggests an ECL forming off the NSW South Coast, with potential gales to storm force winds and another large to XL S swell event through later Wed into Thurs/Fri. You’ll see that on the wave models.

EC has a much more sedate outlook. They suggest the trough system stays inland and increasing E to NE winds flow into it, through Wed-Fri. That will see another round of onshore winds and short range E to NE swell through into Easter Friday.

Instability and the intrusion of cold polar air over the interior suggests the probability of ECL formation is high, so check back Friday and we’ll see whether it’s time to break out the big boards again, so soon after the last swell event.