Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Improvement in surf Thurs/Fri with small, fun trade swells and light/mod NE winds
• Fun small surf Sat with flukey winds as trough lingers in the region
• Increaing E/NE trade swell Sun, with light winds (still flukey around the trough)
• Chunky E/NE swell Mon, holding into Tues at least with light winds 
• Days of E swell ahead from next week, with sizey potential as tropics comes to life and massive tradewind belt forms
• Stay tuned for updates

Recap

Nothing pretty about the last 48hrs with a low pressure trough stalling off the Central Coast yesterday bringing robust onshore S/SE to SE winds and  around 2-3ft of mixed up surf, 3ft on the Hunter. Conditions have settled down into today with a lighter E’ly flow and a surfable, if unlovely, 3ft of surf, consisting of a mix of E’ly swell trains on offer. Not great, but very surfable if you aren't too fussy.

Not pretty but enough swell energy for a shred

This week (Feb21-25)

Compared to Mondays Notes the rest of the week is now looking more unstable, under the influence of a classic La Niña pattern. High  pressure has strengthened  (1019 to 1030 hPa since Monday!) as it’s moved into the Tasman Sea and a series of troughs are turning the moist and deep E’ly infeed into plenty of showers and rain. This is the pattern for almost the entire Eastern Seaboard with a very active tropical phase ahead as we move into Autumn.

With high pressure now semi-stationary near New Zealand the deep E’ly flow is set to remain place for a while, with nearshore winds in temperate NSW now tending NE before a trough brings a flukey S’ly change later Fri and into Sat.

Tomorrow looks OK, with an early light NW to N wind before NE breezes kick in. No great change to the swell expected: 2ft or so of E’ly swell with a few sets of longer period S swell, around 2-3ft at the more reliable S swell magnets. 

Winds go a bit funky on Fri as another trough stalls out on the coast around the Sydney Basin. This is likely to see the NE flow drop out with a light and variable flow kicking in before winds tend light E to SE. Keep eyes on local wind conditions as showers and storms will play a major role in wind at any given location. We should see a little kick in size, up into the 2-3ft range from the E-E/NE at most beaches, making Friday the best day of the working week.

This weekend (Feb 26 - 27)

No great change to the swell expected this weekend but the presence of the lingering trough makes winds a bit trickier to call- expect a final finesse on Friday.

Saturday should see a light SE flow across most of the Sydney basin,  with light N’lies more likely on the Hunter and a stiffer S’ly flow from the Illawarra south.

Light morning winds should be the best conditions for the day,  with more small E’ly dominated surf in the 2ft range expected. Winds should be light all day around the trough line which is expected to linger around the Sydney region.

The trough stays in place for Sunday, on current modelling, with the same wind regime. Generally a light SW to S flow early, tending light SE. More NE to E/NE directed winds are expected on the Hunter. Of course the caveat is if the trough changes it’s position so will the winds, so check back on Fri for a more close range call.

Surf-wise, a building trend is expected Sunday. Surf will be under-sized early, in the 2ft+ range but by lunch-time, and certainly through the a’noon we’ll see increasing E/NE swell on the build, getting up into the 4ft range by close of play. This will be generated by the increasing E to E/NE winds in the deep E’ly wind field retrograding S and W towards NSW as a large area of tropical low pressure off the QLD coast starts to deepen and move S. This aims the fetch more directly at NSW, including temperate regions.

Next week (Feb 28 onwards)

The dynamic activity which has been teased for weeks on the charts is finally coming to fruition. And the timeline has been bought forwards. 

Sundays building trend continues into  Monday with chunky E/NE swell in the water. This should see size in the 4ft range continue up into the 3-5ft range during the day.

GFS model is slightly more bullish on the extent and timing of this swell increase Mon than EC, so we will need to keep a bit of a lid on the froth until we see models come into agreement. Either way there’ll be plenty of E/NE swell in the water Mon and winds are likely to be light through the morning tending E to NE through the day.

E/NE swell continues at similar levels Tues, with a slight building trend likely, up into the 4-5ft range. 

Winds remains tricky to call, depending on the position of another coastal trough. 

From mid-next week model divergence makes confidence in any specific calls extremely low. We’ll sketch out the pattern and fill in the details as they become better illuminated. 

Strong high pressure belt remains in place, offering excellent anchoring/cradling for multiple low pressure systems in the Coral Sea and South Pacific. 

On it’s own terms, the high pressure belt is expected to form a long, broad tradewind fetch through the South Pacific corridor between New Caledonia and the North Island, extending back into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea. That will maintain plenty of E to E/NE swell at least through to next weekend.

As well as a broad area of low pressure off the QLD coast this weekend, it’s possible we may see one or even two tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea and off New Caledonia next week. EC favours a cyclone off New Caledonia, moving slowly to a position off the North Island later next week with excellent potential for a sizeable blast of E’ly groundswell into the first weekend of March.

GFS is suggesting dual cyclones in the Coral Sea with a potential Fujiwhara effect, with a more NW movement back into the Coral Sea before tracking S. This set-up favours QLD, but as mentioned the extraordinary tradewind belt maintain excellent E swell potential to start Autumn off with a bang.

Check back Fri for a fresh look and a final squizz at the weekend.

Yeah, and, better get the step-up waxed up.