Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 3 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• NE windswell holding at small/marginal levels Thurs
• Juicy ESE swell building Fri, peaking Sat morning, with continuing NE winds
• Leftover ESE swell Sun, easing further during the day with continuing NE winds
• Small S swell likely Tues next week, with more small S swell Wed/Thurs, stay tuned for revisions
• Troughy pattern in Tasman Sea continues

Recap

We’ve seen some small leftover S swell trains provide a few fun waves through yesterday, with size in the 2ft range through most of the region, bigger 2-3ft on the Hunter. Today has roughly maintained that size with gurgly bits and pieces from the NE providing the bulk of the swell energy on offer, and winds from the same quadrant (NE). Cleanest conditions early before the nor-easter kicked in, confining clean and semi-clean options to more S facing corners. Nothing great, but surfable on a shortboard. 

This week (Nov3-5)

The block pattern mentioned in Mondays f/cast notes is now well established. It’s a troughy block pattern, with a series of low pressure troughs through the Australian interior, and a large slow moving high pressure cell now located near the South Island of New Zealand. The southwards located high is producing a summer synoptic pattern, which is expected to remain resilient through the rest of the week and into the weekend, before the next S’ly change early next week. 

The good news for our surf prospects is a complex low pressure system located just NE of the North Island is strong enough and large enough to generate severe gales to low end storm force winds out of Cook Strait, adjacent to the Taranaki peninsula and extending out into the Eastern Tasman sea. This fetch is on track to generate a great pulse of E through ESE swell for a broad swathe of the East Coast. Typically these fetches are compact, transient, very E’ly aligned and favour Central NSW. This one is longer, more durable, more SE in orientation and thus is expected to favour a large length of the coast, extending up into sub-tropical NSW and SEQLD.

Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) passes show areas of the fetch already at storm force strength as it develops in the areas mentioned above, leading to high confidence in the upcoming f/cast.

We’ve got one more day of small gurgle to get through with NE windswell in the 2ft range through Thursday and NE winds through the day, lightest inshore early. 

Those winds will remain through Fri but we’ll see meaningful increase in mid period ESE swell through the day, after an under-sized start. Expect surf to build into the 2-3ft range through the morning before a more substantial increase through the a’noon, with size building into the 3-4ft range, possibly with bigger bomb sets at some of the more E facing beaches through the late a’noon. Fresh NNE to NE winds whip up through the day so you’ll need to factor in some wind protection to make the most of it.

This weekend (Nov 6-7)

No significant changes to the weekend f/cast. Plenty of ESE swell in the water Sat morning, with size in the 3-5ft range, and the same N to NE wind regime as the block pattern will have been re-set by reinforcing high pressure which slips into the Central/lower Tasman Sea late this week. Swell is expected to peak through the morning, with a slow roll-off in size expected through the a’noon. There should be plenty of swell energy to get through the day, despite the easing trend.

Sunday sees swell from the same source fetch, but with a more substantial easing trend now in play. Winds remain from the northern quadrant, possibly tending NW inshore early. Expect size in the 3ft range early, easing back into the 2-3ft range during the day and becoming weaker and less consistent as both size and period drop out.

Next week (Nov8) and beyond

Still some uncertainty over how early next week will play out as models struggle to resolve the extreme troughiness over both inland and Tasman Sea areas. 

A NW/SE angled trough line in the Tasman Sea off the NSW South Coast  is a likely outcome through Mon, bringing a S’ly change, either late Mon or Tuesday, depending on how this trough resolves. 

That suggests a small flush of S swell for Tuesday, under current modelling with S’ly winds in play and of low quality.

Weather models diverge from mid-next week, with EC maintaining a small trough or surface low in the Mid-Tasman, suggesting a modest S swell regime through Wed/Thurs, while GFS maintains a weak low down towards the South Island, with small, weak S swell for the region Wed/Thurs.

An approaching mid-latitude low is likely to cross the interior of NSW/Victoria towards the end of next week, bringing enhanced instability. Possibly seeing a NE infeed into the approaching system or a break-out trough line in NENSW. Both of those scenarios are likely to be substantially revised due to the extreme instability and dynamic nature of this troughy pattern.

Check back Fri, and we’ll run the ruler over the weekend f/cast as well as stay up to date on the surf potential for next week.