Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th May)

Best Days: Thurs: light winds, very good though easing SE swell. Tues onwards: plenty of south swell, potentially large around Thurs/Fri.

Recap: Tuesday remained large across the coast with 6-8ft+ sets at exposed spots, before easing to 5-6ft this morning and down a little more this afternoon. Excluding a few localised pockets of early SW winds, Tuesday saw fresh, persistent S/SE breezes that created bumpy conditions for the most part, before light variable winds returned to the fore this morning. 

Early Wednesday lines at Manly

This week (May 28 - 29)

The Tasman Low is now much weaker, positioned off Far Northern NSW. Because it’s now not generating any new energy for us, we will see a steady decline in wave heights over the coming days.

But, the surf won’t go completely flat.

Two small E’ly fetches off New Zealand’s West Coast over the last few days will maintain fun waves across the open beaches on Thursday, easing slowly and leveling out into Friday. Thursday morning should still be quite punchy with leftover energy in the 3ft+ range (occasionally bigger across the Hunter) but a gradual easing to around 2ft+ is expected through Friday. 

Thursday’s conditions look clean with light variable winds. Friday is a little risky with a shallow S’ly change expected to push along the coast overnight, influencing most regions during the day though we should see a reasonable period of light winds early morning. Just be mindful that freshening southerly winds are a possibility.

This weekend (May 30 - 31)

I’m not expecting anything amazing this weekend. 

Both days are likely to see small residual swell from a couple of sources (1) a minor east swell generated off NZ’s west coast, (2) some minor S’ly swell from Friday’s weak change, and (late Sunday) some small long period swell from migrating polar lows below the continent. 

Monday’s notes discussed the possibility that the current Tasman Low might reform off New Zealand’s West Coast later this week and generate a new SE swell for Sunday. It’s still a chance - the models haven’t wiped this solution completely - but it’s likely to happen a little later (i.e. resulting in a swell event early next week) and the alignment of the low looks less favourable for our region, so confidence has diminished. Let’s take a closer look on Friday.

The weekend’s conditions look generally fine with light variable winds on Saturday morning tending N'ly into the afternoon, before freshening from the NW on Sunday as a strong front approaches from the south-west. 

Next week (June 1 onwards)

The main feature on the long term charts is an amplifying node of the Long Wave trough over the eastern states from this weekend onwards.

At this stage, we’ll see initial developments within our swell window around Monday and Tuesday (W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait), followed by a more intense, broader Southern Ocean low pushing under Tasmania later Tuesday or Wednesday (see below). 

So aside from the low-percentage SE swell early next week (mentioned above), we’re looking at moderate S’ly swells Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by moderate to large, long period - but very directional - S’ly swells on Thursday and Friday. All accompanied by classic winteresque W’ly tending SW winds. 

See you Friday!