Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 26th August)

Best Days: Average surf all week though there'll be pockets of opportunity here and there. Sat/Sun looking the pick of the forecast period with light winds and a peaky mix of small/mod E/NE and small S'ly swell. More E/NE swell Mon onwards too.

Recap: Easing S'ly swells and light winds on Saturday delivered great waves at most south facing beaches in the 4-5ft range, with a few bigger bombs across the Hunter. Smaller surf settled into the afternoon with the downwards trend holding into Sunday, along with a developing S'ly change as the moring progressed. Average conditions have persisted today thanks to a mainly onshore airstream under the influence of a local trough, along with a small rise in S'ly swell. 

Saturday afternoon bowls on the Coal Coast

This week (August 27 - 30)

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We’ve got a very complex week of waves ahead.

First up, the trough lingering just offshore is expected to briefly strengthen into Tuesday, with a narrow fetch of 25kt E/SE winds developing off the Hunter region. This should build a low quality, local windswell to 3-4ft into the afternoon, with smaller surf south from the Central Coast or thereabouts. It’s not worth getting too excited about.

This short lived swell will ease rapidly into Wednesday as the trough temporarily dissipates, bringing about a period of light winds and lumpy leftover conditions across most coasts. 

Tuesday and Wednesday will otherwise see small flukey swells from the south. 

A strong cold front is expected push up the coast on Thursday, and will generate a sizeable local south swell during the day, probably in the vicinity of 4-6ft at south facing beaches, however this will reinvigorate the lingering trough, and the gusty S/SE winds accompanying the swell will make for poor surf conditions. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

Although the trough will gradually contract to the north into Friday, persistent (though easing) S’ly through SE winds will maintain below average conditions as wave heights gradually ease.

Unfortunately, this local system will also mask a small underlying southerly groundswell mentioned in Friday’s notes, sourced from a series of very strong Southern Ocean lows traversing the waters south of Tasmania over the coming days. 

This weekend (Aug 31 - Sep 1)

Despite the outlook for the next few days, the weekend’s looking reasonably fun. 

This week’s dominant local trough will meander off the North Coast all weekend, pushing far enough away from our region to bring about periods of light variable winds both Saturday and Sunday. In fact, we may even see pre-frontal northerlies late Sunday from an unrelated system advancing from the south-west.

As for surf, the local S’ly swell on Thurs/Fri will have eased quickly by this time, but the northern trough will develop a nice E’ly fetch about its southern flank and this should contribute fun waves anywhere in the 3ft to make 3-4ft range at exposed beaches. Direction should be somewhere around the E thru’ E/NE.

More southerly swell is expected over the weekend too, sourced from Southern Ocean systems later this week though their poor alignment will keep wave heights on the small side, perhaps 2-3ft at reliable south swell magnets.

I don’t think the waves will be anywhere near perfect, but it’s shaping up to be a super fun weekend across the beach breaks.

Next week (Sep 2 onwards)

Model guidance has the trough lingering in the Northern Tasman Sea all weekend though with a slight eastward trajectory. This will maintain plenty of fun E/NE swell into the start of next week, in fact a brief intensification on Sunday (south of New Caledonia) could deliver a slightly bigger pulse later Monday (though not by much). Size will then gradually ease through the middle of the week

Otherwise there’s nothing much standing out in the long term forecast. 

See you Wednesday!