Large windy weekend, easing and improving next week
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st June)
Best Days: Sat/Sun: large though windy S tending SE swells. Mon/Tues/Wed: solid though easing SE swell with improving conditions.
Recap: Building S’ly swells through Thursday that have delivered very large waves today in the 8ft+ range at south facing beaches. A strong S’ly swell direction has resulted in much smaller at remaining beaches. Thursday saw initially W’ly winds tending SW, S/SW then S’ly for a period, whilst today we’ve seen winds either from the SW (most locations), or S/SW at a few locations such as Little Bay.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This weekend (June 2 - 3)
This Tasman Low (note: not an East Coast Low) is still very active in our swell window and will remain at strength into Saturday morning. At this time it will undergo a structural change, moving more to the east and strengthening a broad SE through E’ly fetch on its southern flank.
So, the general swell trend should remain very large out of the south into Saturday morning, at a similar size seen this afternoon (8ft+ sets across the Hunter Coast and other south swell magnets, smaller elsewhere relative to your beach’s exposure to the south), before size eases slowly into the afternoon and then more rapidly into Sunday - but only to be supplemented by a strong secondary SE groundswell in the 6ft+ range to finish the weekend.
Because the E/SE fetch around the southern flank of the low is evolving slowly, it’s hard to be confident in exactly when we’ll see it arrive across the coast. So Sunday morning’s wave heights estimates need some elasticity as we’ll be under the influence of both an easing S’ly and building SE swell - and size may very well come in a little under budget for the first few hours of the day. However, size should be quite strong through the afternoon with some exposed beaches pushing north of 6ft, possibly close to 8ft (most open beaches will be smaller though, reaching 4-6ft, smaller again inside sheltered southern corners).
The big issue this weekend are the winds. We’ll see gusty breezes both days from the S/SW, which will confine the only rideable waves to protected southern corners. There’s a chance for early periods of SW winds but in general you shouldn’t expect much quality at those exposed northern ends that’ll be raking in the most size.
Next week (June 4 onwards)
The fetch responsible for Sunday’s SE swell will remain active into Monday which means we’ll see elevated wave heights through the start of the new week (6ft+ sets south facing beaches early morning), easing slowly throughout the afternoon and a little more steadily through Tuesday.
By Wednesday morning these exposed spots will be down to 3ft+ (smaller throughout the day) though there is some concern that we’ll see lingering S/SW breezes Monday and Tuesday that’ll cause problems at exposed spots. Winds will certainly ease throughout this time frame and that lends more credibility to the chance of early SW (or even W/SW) winds across some areas but it’s just not a sure bet at this point in time. But, it'll be better than the weekend.
Light variable winds are much more likely on Wednesday.
Long term swell prospects are from peripheral sources. A strong front entering the SE corner of the Tasman Sea on Monday will generate some small sideband S/SE swell for Wednesday and Thursday (overlapping with the easing SE swell), and a small ridge through the central Tasman Sea mid week may generate a minor E’ly swell for us. Certainly not worth working around though.
Northerly winds are expected Thursday and Friday. Looking further ahead, and we have a possible unseasonable tropical low in the Northern Tasman Sea later next week and into the weekend that could be a source of E/NE swell through the following week. More on this in Monday’s update.
Comments
80 plus 40ft shipping containers lost overboard off Hunter coast...be carefull in the surf tomorrow fellas
“the containers are believed to have fallen overboard from the YM Efficiency about 30 kilometres off the NSW Central Coast”.
Not very bloody efficient.
Hey Ben,
Can you please explain the difference between a Tasman Low and an East Coast Low?
Is it to do with wind speeds, pressure, location, or all of the above?
I just noticed one of your competitors is calling this system an ECL and wanted to know why you guys are calling it a Tasman Low?
P.S wind is howling in Narooma right now (11pm Friday). Montague Island is showing an apparent temp of 2.5 deg and 70km/h gusts.
We've written an article just on this topic:
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2015/04/20/when-east-coa...
Thanks Ben.
That’s an excellent article!
Answered all my questions and some.
Hey Ben, not trying to blow smoke up your arse but you do write a damn fine, nuanced forecast. I think for my neck of the woods, it's about the best there is.
Thanks BD, I appreciate the nice words. Glad you enjoy reading it - I enjoy writing it!
Except for my own local rules of thumb, of course
Wtf strong groundswell, which oriface is that coming from? We had mild 4ft plus groundswells recently off a series of lows to the south which were so much better than this ribbish system.
Are you whinging about the lack of strength, size or quality?
Can't be size: checked these huge sets motoring around the corner at Avoca this morning.
No shortage of size at Manly either (for a straight south swell!) - North Steyne is pretty solid and the Queensie bommie is breaking.
Are we talking about surfing here or just tall waves? Those photis u put up show dirty shit surf, thanks for putting em up . No strong groundswell there.
Not strong? Perhaps you mean "not great quality". If so, the forecast is pretty well bang on.
BTW, the only reference in my notes to a 'strong' swell was for Sunday, not Saturday:
"So, the general swell trend should remain very large out of the south into Saturday morning.. before size eases slowly into the afternoon and then more rapidly into Sunday - but only to be supplemented by a strong secondary SE groundswell in the 6ft+ range to finish the weekend."
Also, everyone's got their own interpretation of surf conditions, but I reckon your assesement that today's surf is not 'strong' is way off.
Surely a rev up?
Easy 6-8' where I was on the N Beaches this morn, 8+ pushing 10 foot on a few clean up sets.
Swell buoy 5.5-9.5m at a solid 12-13 sec period.
Sure its not the toppest of quality but doesn't get a whole lot stronger in these parts!
Nup not 'strong groundswell ' there in those pics is it. And theres no strong groundswell coming from that tasman low later either.
Nappys Sanitary products and Surgical masks are starting to wash up on Beaches
Fucking Shocking ..lets hope not to many containers have opened
Bit happening..
Yikes.. really?
How and who does the daily reports for your 'observed' locations?
Wollongong has been way out. A 6 on Friday and a 5 today. What a joke - Most spots unsurfable in the area and the southern corners were rat shit. Friday especially. Are the reports written without even looking, possibly even from a central location from looking at a few surf cams/the predicted forecast?
Have to check across Cronulla to Central Coast reports to get a gauge on whats going on. These are the only two reports that look like they have been updated by an 'observer'.
Have even seen the same poor grammar and misspelling across the NSW reports. I guess its updated across the board with a few sentences changed around to give the appearance its uniquely observed.
Good way to improve would be to get an actual observer at the 'observed' locations and call them out on the page or at least highlight a 'No observer' for the day they are not on the clock.
I dunno Clownfish I saw some footage of this morning of Mason Ho and Mick Fanning down your way and it looked pretty good, certainly better than a 6 :-)
I'm always wary of people who register with Swellnet using a temporary disposable e-mail service like 10 Minute Mail, in order to post a single negative comment (as is exactly the case with old mate here). More times often than not, these people seem to be trying to hide an identity rather than avoiding spam. There certainly doesn't appear to be any interest in engaging with our editorial content.
Anyway, we've been down this path before - discussing the merits of the rating system (for the record: Swellnet started without one, I don't particularly like rating systems, but we had a large number of requests so added it in some time ago). Probably about time we published an article describing the rating system but more so, showing the difficulty in choosing a single number that's representative of a large coastal region.
I think 5 and 6 out of ten for the last few days is pretty reasonable; we've had large swells and OK winds for many points and reefs, though as you've stated plenty of spots were terrible. Looking at it simplistically, rating either day a 7 or 8 would have been an overcall, but rating either day a 3 or 4 would have been an undercall. But hey: it's all subjective. Here's a (publicly available) photo from yesterday - looks pretty good to me.
Thanks Ben but you got defensive and missed the point. Clarrie was on assignment yesterday - that is not Wollongong. I'm sure the locals are happy you publicised it though to prove a point (a point not relevant to the original post). Are you saying waves within 2 or 3 hours of the observed report are what the daily 'observed' report is based on? Or is Clarrie the daily reporter? Anyway maybe re-read the original post for the main points. Looking for transparency in your daily reports - why are you hiding the identity of who writes them?
All of our surf reports are ‘regional’.. the Wollongong report covers the coast from Stanwell Park to Gerringong (we would have called it the Illawarra surf report, but it’s useless from an SEO perspective).
I’m not trying to hide the identity our our reporters either. I just don’t have their permission to publish their personal details - we’ve been producing surf reports for fourteen years now (some of our reporters have been with us from the start) and the original agreements we teed up way back then didn’t have that provision. We are however looking to include a surf reporter profile page with a new version of the website (for those reporters who are happy for us to divulge that information).
Hey clownfish WOTD today is from the weekend down your way when you were complaining about whether it was a 5 or 6. Maybe lees time spent sooking about the forecast would be better spent looking for waves?
Pretty chunky on the beach. And how's that set rolling from Deadmans through to the Bower in the first pic!
Craig might bust out the New 7'0 Balsa pintail and have a dig at Deadmans
That is great for a laugh all you need to do is look at some synoptic charts and you would clearly see it was bound to be shit with this ugly low. But I lived in Gong for 20 years and a six out of ten is a ten there usually. Maybe clownfish could be the observer for his local spot. Get down there each day with ur ipad and let it rip cob. There might even be money in it. But then there are the crowds of arseholes who will surf where u tell them.
Really can't quite see where you're coming from mate.. you seem to be suggesting I said it would be a weekend of great quality waves, when that's not the case at all.
Yeah , nuh clownfish seems to have thought he was going to get epic waves today. Perhaps he thinks 'strong groundswell' means epic waves. But no. Particularly in Wollongong. No strong groundswell from that low anyway.
Swell direction seems to be more around to the SE now... The Island's hitting Surge at a much better angle now. Shame about the winds.
Geez Ben stop replying to thes porkchopss(clownfish). Your doing a great job mate. Swell=surf. Get in the water and enjoy. If you could find a decent rideable wave over last couple of days on the east coast you should maybe give it away. Stop reading too much into a forecast and go check the surf!!!.
Agreed Elliedog. It doesn't matter what digital platform you look at you always have the same type of negative feedback from negative people (thats a nice word for it). The simple answer is if you done like the reports or what the beach looks like today then pull the plug and don't follow swellnet - especially as most are getting the info for free .
Swell net - you are doing a fab job and mother nature is unpredictable. Thats one reason we love surfing. Go explore.
Light entertainment . It would be totally unrealistic, and even negative, to only have positive commentary. The rules are pretty clear , it is unacceptable to be personally abusive or threatening . This might a bit of a blurred boundary for some and there is always yhe option not to respond. Or to remove people or comments, which sometimes happens. However I think this is a public notice board and heatd debate, disagreement , opinion etc must have a place. Also I think the proprietors often enjoy the challenge of dealing with some of the tough cases. It gives them a chance to explain things and perhaps change opion. Or maybe they enjoy writing too. Personally I like to surf my local epic slabs on my own or a couple of mates and I hate the swarms of car loads goin where forecasters send em. So I like to get on here and stir it up a bit. I like it when they get it wrong so I avoid gettin on here with 'spot x was actually firing today folks. Maybe I can change some opinions too and convince people to do more of thier own forecasting and analysis.
Solid - dare I say strong - surf at Manly this morning (open this image in another tab, check the bloke sliding into the right).
Chunky at the Island too.. will be interesting to see if the wind holds off for the better tide.
Is that a bloke in the barrel behind the first section in the manly pic?
Not the guy out front of the second section.
Nah, just chandeliering I reckon.
Some decent sets at the Q Bombie too.
Not-strong surf at Manly this morning.
Not 'strong groundswell'.
Beg to differ mate, you mustn't have got wet over the weekend.. periods have also been hanging around 12s with thumping set waves. Strong for these parts.
12secs thats poor, not groundswell. And I thought it was higher even. Also there was still a storm surge hanging around.
Stacked..
Is that the ledge dredging?
Yeah 'Treachery'.
Saturday at Deadmans. Not bad for a predominantly S'ly swell!
Fifteen seconds at Shark Island, in surfcam grabs.
i got sick waves down bellambi . got some solid 6ft plus slabs on my beachie offshore s winds . thats wollongonv and was fun . keep it up buddy i read the forecast everytime to keep updated .3 days of solid shorey shacks .