Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 25th February)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: solid though easing south swell with light winds. 

Recap: According to the buoys, the swell trend’s been generally inline with exceptions: down quite a bit from Wednesday into Thursday, then up again today with new long period S’ly swell where peak periods nudged 17 seconds. Except, surf size at the coast just hasn’t translated quite as much as it did on Wednesday. Sure, this system was less favourably aligned (and was noted as such in Monday’s and Wednesday’s notes) but core winds showed a very broad fetch well above 50kts for more than a couple of days and this should have resulted in bigger surf than the occasional 6ft sets seen at south swell magnets. For what its worth, reports from the same offshore bombie mentioned on Wednesday as being in the 12-15ft range were that it “was about the same size” today, which in truth is less than I had expected - given the greater strength of the parent weather system. By and large, most Southern NSW beaches seem to have come in smaller around 3-5ft, with 6ft sets at south swell magnets. Just to cape it off, the expected lingering morning southerly breeze didn’t ease off throughout the day as forecast, and has hung around into the afternoon - not enough to cause any major problems, but certainly enough to take the sheen off an otherwise uninspiring southerly groundswell event.  

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend (May 26 - 27)

The weekend forecast is relatively straight forward: we’re at the peak of this current event, so from tonight we’re looking at a slow decrease in size from the south, all the way through into Sunday evening. Winds will remain light under 10kts both days so conditions will be clean. 

All that’s required now is to set the datum to kick off the weekend. But before we lock in a linear downwards trend from here on, it's worth noting that we may actually see a secondary pulse from the hook of the low as it passed through the Tasman Sea, when it was in a slightly more favourable position for our coast (though weaker, and tracking away). 

So, let’s peg most south facing beaches in the 4-6ft range for the Saturday morning session (possibly bigger across the Hunter near 6-8ft) but easing to 3-5ft by the afternoon. Again, surf size will be progressively smaller as you work your way from a south facing beach to a protected southern corner. The trend will be down throughout the day.

Sunday will be down from 3-4ft to 2-3ft by the afternoon at south facing beaches (again a little bigger in the Hunter but smaller elsewhere). Expect less consistency as the weekend progresses too.

Overall, it looks like a great couple of days of waves as long as you like south swell and have a decent bank up your sleeve!

Next week (May 28 onwards)

The first half of next week will see surf size bottoming out as a blocking pattern occupies all of our swell windows. Monday morning should see some stray sets at south swell magnets but that’s the pick of the period. Winds should be light but will tend northerly throughout the day and into Tuesday ahead of a front that’ll swing to the west around Wednesday morning. 

This front will result in a southerly change late Wednesday that’s expected to interact with a broad coastal trough to the north-east, possibly forming an East Coast low right off our doorstop around Thursday. 

However, the models are split as to how and where this low will form, and what characteristics it’ll display. We need quite a few more days to pin things down, but right now it’s worth pencilling in Thursday through Sunday for some potentially large (and wet, and windy) waves out of the eastern quadrant. It does look like quite an active period for the Tasman Sea throughout the long term.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!