Later Thursday and Friday looking fun with a new SE swell
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th February)
Best Days: Thurs PM/Fri: fun SE swell with reasonable winds.
Recap: I'm sorry things didn't plan out as expected over the weekend. It’s certainly pretty humbling to see Friday’s bold prediction not eventuate, even more so when Northern NSW and SE Qld came pretty close to expectations, delivering sets as high as 10ft+ at some exposed spots. Worse, I’m past deadline to prepare these forecast notes, and in the last few hours reports have started to filter through of new long period E/NE swell making landfall across the South Coast (though bypassing much of the Newcastle/Sydney/Wollongong region). So, I’m not entirely confident how the next 24 hours will play out from this system. However it’s also worth mentioning that the weekend’s unrelated southerly groundswell was reported across some - though not all - south facing beaches in the 4-5ft range, of which the Eden buoy recorded leading edge peak swell periods of 19 seconds around 2pm Saturday.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This week (Feb 20 - 23)
First up - thanks everyone for your reports and comments in these Forecaster Notes over the last week (and indeed the last sixteen years), as we’ve monitored this cyclone swell event. As well as providing plenty of light entertainment, everyone’s input is valuable from a scientific point of view - as the data collection of surf obs is much more sporadic and coarse than I’d prefer - so your real-time commentary helps to improve the service.
As to how this swell performed - I’m limited on time today (Craig is on leave, so I’m doing his forecasts too) and I’d like to do a quick hindcast of the event - I’ll try to do this tomorrow. But in short, I’m torn between being utterly disappointed that it didn’t eventuate in Southern NSW, but reasonably pleased with how it all panned out across SE Qld and Northern NSW.
I’d like a little more time to delve into why we didn’t see much surf across Southern NSW, so stay tuned for more.
So, moving right along into the current forecast, and as for E/NE cyclone swell - model guidance had this pulse supposedly into our region this morning, peaking later today and then easing through Tuesday morning. We’ve had a couple of reports of the South Coast late this afternoon - south of the primary forecast region of Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra coasts - picking up 4-5ft sets. But, buoy observations haven't been updated since 2pm so I'm unable to verify in any other capacity.
So, if we consider the model guidance (showing this afternoon’s size holding into early Tuesday before easing throughout the day) to be true, then at face value the safest option is to assume that whatever you’re looking at this evening will be present early tomorrow morning, before easing. There’s simply no way to have any confidence otherwise, as we do not have any physical wave buoys located ‘upstream’ to confirm how the swell is performing ahead of making landfall.
In any case, surface conditions are going to be pretty ordinary with gusty S/SE winds across most coasts as a strong high pressure system south of Tasmania drives a ridge along the East Coast. Sheltered southern corner will have the only workable options.
These S/SE winds will generate 3ft+ of average quality S/SE swell on Tuesday, though the beaches picking up this size will be very bumpy. So, confidence isn't high for any great waves on Tuesday.
Wednesday will see any leftover trace of E/NE swell from TC Gita completely disappear, and the short range S/SE swell from Tuesday will tend more SE, seeing increasing energy from a broader fetch developing as the ridge interacts with the south-east moving cyclone. This should maintain 2-3ft sets across most open beaches with improving conditions as winds lighten up. Though surface conditions may still be wobbly, particularly from Sydney through to Newcastle which may see an early lingering onshore. It’ll get better throughout the day though.
As ex-TC Gita tracks towards New Zealand on Tuesday, it’ll reform off the West Coast and form a broad fetch of gales that will give rise to a brief flush of SE groundswell as we progress into Thursday. This should provide 3-5ft sets across south facing beaches into the afternoon (smaller at southern ends, and smaller in the morning) though I’m very surprised the wave model isn’t picking up this energy very well. Yes, the low doesn’t hang around for a very long time but the fetch is strong, broad and of considerable length (for a closed low in the Tasman Sea). So we should get some decent mileage from it.
Thursday’s winds look OK too, early light and variable with NE sea breezes developing in the afternoons. There’ll be options across northern corners after lunch as the new SE swell starts to make landfall. Early morning should offer small clean beachies.
This SE swell will then ease into Friday with N/NE winds becoming a little more established as an inland trough develops along the eastern states and a high muscles up in the Tasman Sea. Early morning should see light winds though, and 3-5ft sets from the SE at dawn, abating slowly throughout the day. If anything, expect the upper end of this size range north from Sydney, with the lower end south of Sydney (the fetch will be aimed better towards northern regions).
This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)
Surf conditions look mixed this weekend.
Small leftover swells and freshening northerly winds on Saturday won’t offer much surf across the Sydney region. However, we’ll see a building NE windswell into the afternoon that should peak early Sunday morning, around 2ft+ at NE facing beaches.
Sunday looks OK conditions wise with light winds, though the models are split and we may see a westerly change push through (either way, the early session should be worthwhile). There’s a risk of redeveloping N’ly winds into the afternoon though if the westerly doesn’t eventuate.
Next week (Feb 26 onwards)
There’s too much model divergence to have confidence in next week’s surf trends. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.
Comments
exciting week, tough job forecasting with so much going on, well done Ben respect your honesty and integrity
Thanks Ben, and thanks for all the detail in the forecasts leading into the event. Can't see how you have anything to apologise for. You provide all the data and your reasoning, and then make the call. We can make our own judgements based on that and other data that's out there. Stoked to be able to read your forecasts. Looking forward to reading the hindcast.
Agree 100% with this comment. Cheers Ben, no need to apologise for anything.
Mother Nature is a woman after all. It is she decides if you're in for the ride of your life, or if you're going to get flogged within an inch of your life...or just left to sit in the corner to play with yourself :)
Got a few little cheeky ones down here yesterday afternoon - which was better than the summer dribble we have been getting. Bring on Autumn.
Tough week at work Ben! I'm really happy the swell didn't eventuate due to major fomo, I am also really happy at the opportunity to learn something from this event.
Ben: I can’t in good conscience ignore a Cat 3 cyclone aligned really well within our swell window.
Sydney Northern Beaches: Yeah, nah, you probably could have.
Respect on the mea culpa Ben. If only our politicians had a shred of your integrity and sense of accountability. That's why it's called forecasting, not hindcasting. Big up yourself.
Call me a slow learner but I'm still expecting something tomorrow morning and will be setting the alarm accordingly.
Deep south was on fire this arvo. 8 foot on the bombies. Beachies on this stretch as good as i have had in a long, long time. Know the swell,winds and tide and you should have got barreled shitless.
Thanks Ben for the forecasts and your new nick name could be the "fluffer"
A lot of very excited humans with nowhere to go pacing the beaches and highways around the Sydney area and it just didn't happen as we all expected. Mother nature runs her own course.
Best day was Friday arvo between 12-2pm and again from 5-7pm for punch, quality and consistency at a local reef/point. Went back every day including between 1-3pm today and max 3 foot and weak weird swell.
Glad they all got some further north.
Yep, I'll put my hand up, I don't know how so much energy in the system could translate into so little energy on the beaches, it was a non-cyclone event here.
Both strange and wonderful.
I took the reports and thought that a south facing beach would get me out of the winds this past weekend. So I trekked to Port Stephens/Anna bay. It was firing sat and sun (I’m no expert but I would have called it 6ft+?). But apparently Sydney was not? This makes me wonder what swell was it up there - the south swell or the ENE swell from Gita? Thanks for all the forecasts as well. Amazing work.
Ha stunet that's about as optimistic as my take offs out the point,
I don't make them and I doubt if this swell will make it.
Hahahaaa , slow learner yes. Basic system, spreading its energy out all over the place. Right from early on there was never gunna be a healthy fetch for sthn NSW . It was moving too fast and constantly changing direction. Never got traction. Very simple.
Buttholesurfer, Ben may have made the wrong call (in challenging) circumstances
But at least he has some social skills, something it appears you may be a slow learner with? Perhaps try to be a little more humble with your gloating - which for the most part was about as detailed as calling it a "sleazy" Tasman Low (when in fact it was technically a cyclone)
Thanks everyone for the nice comments. I'll try to get that hindcast done sometime today.
As per usual, I'm reminded of my perennial motto: "You're only as good as your next forecast".
Ben, if you get a chance check out the commentary of heat 1 of the Nudie skins on Sunday morning ;-)
Also, there was plenty of waves in the far south. Saturday morning had a great pulse out of the E/NE, 5ft open aspects at the local magnet, sure it eased through the afternoon and was undersized Sunday morning, but it rebuilt through Sunday arvo.
Thanks Belly - yeah reports have been wide and varied right across Southern NSW over the last five days.
Unfortunately I don't have time to check out the Nudie commentary.. anything of interest? Saw some images from Newy, looks like they scored some solid waves.
Someone, I think it was Sean, said the cyclone swell has arrived and it's 10ft out of the east. I think they might have been confusing it with the south swell (also reported further up in these comments with obs from Port Stephens). Either way it was very sizey first thing Sunday.
Can be hard to tell swell directions in Newy, when its long period energy. Sun AM had both swells in the water at that time though I find it hard to believe the south swell was 10ft (it's an unreal south swell magnet so is always larger than anywhere else, but most exposed coasts to the south seemed to be 3-5ft).
I was in Newcastle and Port Stephens early Sunday and sth energy was definitely more dominant first thing, the east swell much harder to detect. Newcastle long close out lines across the beach, I would have called it 10ft. Sth facing beaches were 10ft and clean and breaking a long way out only a couple of guys on 8ft guns not getting much. Around the corner at nth facing beach was 2-3ft in the corner and howling onshore. Massive 10ft+ lumps of water coming through up the north end.
Ben, I always found this quote by Teddy Roosevelt to be timely when needed,
'It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.
The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming;
but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.'
Ha! Awesome.. thanks TUT.
Though, 'cold and timid souls' is also a worthy description to anyone rocking up in any SA/Vic/Tas carpark mid-winter with a thumping long period south swell out front.
Cheers men, glad to help. Its certainly a sleazy Tasman low now , when it counts most, which it was always gunna be . But we might still get some 'fun' from it just for a moment before it exits the Tasman, at which point ' technically' it ceases to be a Tasman low.
What does "sleazy" mean when describing weather?
Haha classic funny question. Sleazy isn't exacly a positive word is it , actually it's very negative. Suffice it to say it means very bad. What about the classic word 'fun', it's always used when the surf is small and inconsequential. I always have fun when it's large and very powerful, with serious consequences, when conditions are good of course. Other meanings for the word fun include rubbish, bunkum, flap doodle, piffle. What about the fun sized mars bars, fk i have much more fun eating a large mars bar. Mars bars are like surfing. Anyway this is a digression from the thread topic, may I tie it back in by saying that we might still get fun sized waves off the Taman low. Fk now we're having fun aren't we?
MHL buoys still haven't updated since 2pm yesterday. So, no way to verify any potential E/NE energy in the last 24 hours.
The Port Botany buoy is current, but didn't pick up anything of interest (i.e. no kick in swell period). The buoy is directional but doesn't offer spectral data, which would have been the only way to really identify the new swell.
Ben,
You are definitely too hard on yourself! I read a lot of uncertainty in your forecasts and that is exactly what we got.
Saturday wasn't massive around Newy beaches but there was some real power in the waves that dwarfed anything we've been riding over summer. Sunday saw a serious pulse of swell at Merewether in a small window between 6am and 8am. I don't know what others would call it but for me it was 6-8ft easy. Even the pros that were there for surfest were banging on about how big it was. Monday didn't deliver but that's just the way it rolls, there were still some really fun waves early. Overall Friday to Monday I had a cracker of a weekend surfing guided by your forecasts.
Keep up the good work.
Buttholesurfer it’s easy to crow about it after the fact.
Next time a similar weather system is approaching put your money where ya mouth is and spit out a forecast.
hear hear
Oh what, no fun? But I put up a forecast on Saturday evening didn't I? Ben said I was putting up my thoughts before the fact. What should I do?
Rarely comment but thought I'd check in to say the recent south NSW forecasters notes have been outstanding, incredibly detailed, can tell much deliberation has gone into them and those who are unsatisfied are invited to contribute their own forecasts in this comment section thrice weekly so we can see how they stack up side by side.
Appreciate the effort and detail in the forecast, like nearly everyone else does. I'm looking forward to the hindcast, blew me away how hit and miss the swell was particularly over the weekend.
The surf is possibly 4ft biggest its been for this cyclone swell
but so onshore not one person has entered the water. I'm starting
to really dislike my neck of the woods. No I hate it
Turned it on today, had a 3 hr sesh at my local and scored with no excitable cyclone frothers in sight. Biggest and most consistent by far out of this whole episode and direction straight out of the east, perhaps NE.
Hewy has final say always.
Not sure if it was where i was ( which was pretty fluid to be honest ) , but the pulses of swell seemed to match specific tidal flows / movements . TBH , i never really read forecast notes . Maybe check quickly if i feel i need to back up or question my own thoughts on a scenario . I am very greatful i have a sounding board to bounce obs off though . So like Ben i'm very happy with many inputs from local obs that posters provide . Personally i think the real energy that was aimed towards NSW was too acute for most coasts . So unless bathymetry , coastal angle and its effect on the EAC or riverine interaction wrapped swell into specific locations is not my local to note years of obs . But for mine all the spots that are usually magnets in real acute SSW swells then suffered from there usual location relationship with the same mentioned above . Except in this circumstance the effects usually seen at these South magnets were seen at equally opposite sides of the focusing points . So if your Sth Swell magnets are X kms from the source of your swell refraction causes . Then as i did this week , focus was looked at X kms to the south of these focusing anomalies . Then obviously following the path of the swell once it peaked . Was definitely plenty of NE energy until the late hours of Tuesday . Infact i'm sure there would have been waves still on offer Wed morning . But life continues .....
Too acute?
Mate this was straight out of the E tracking around to the SE.
You couldn't get anymore straight on, less acute swell angle than this one.
This was a comment of Swell - South of Newy . But more specific Sydney to Wollongong .
Read this about 4x times now and I'm pretty sure I get what you're saying. Leaving the acuteness aside, I wouldn't have thought that logic would have applied cos those swells are generally from a more broad source, even if the resultant period is similar