Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 26th January)

Best Days: Mon/Tues: peaky E/NE swell, OK winds. Wed: strong building E'ly swell, though strong S'ly winds will develop at some point. Thurs/Fri: strong combo of large E'ly swell and solid S'ly swell, with easing SW tending S/SE winds. 

Recap: Small NE swells have persisted for the last few days. There’s been a tiny underlying signal of south swell though no appreciable size noticeable at the beach. Winds have been mainly light to moderate NE. 

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This weekend (Jan 27th - 28th)

We’ve had a few changes in the synoptic charts over the last few days, which has had a minor impact on the weekend surf outlook (more so early next week). 

Winds will remain moderate NE over the next few days, so conditions will be ordinary. Saturday is looking at a similar round of surf as per day, with minor NE windswells in general, either side of 2ft+ at exposed NE facing beaches, and tiny surf elsewhere.

Sunday has had a minor downgrade, thanks to the ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea being delayed in its development (and strength) over the last few model runs.

A small long range E/NE swell is expected to arrive during the day, sourced from a trough NE of New Zealand earlier this week, but it’s not showing up in the model guidance and I’m hesitant to have much confidence due to the modest wind speeds recorded by satellites, and the large travel distance. 

Overall, we’re probably looking at another day of peaky waves in and around the 2ft+ mark at NE facing beaches (smaller elsewhere) but keep your expectations low. 

Next week (Jan 29th onwards)

A weakening of the Northern Tasman ridge in the model guidance has had a more prominent influence on surf size for early next week.

At this stage we’re now likely to see a continuation of small short to mid-range E/NE energy across Southern NSW for the first half of the week, with wave heights building to 2-3ft through Monday afternoon and Tuesday (may be slightly undersized early Monday). Slightly larger waves are possible through Tuesday afternoon though I doubt we’ll see much more than the odd 3ft+ bomb at best.

While this is going on, a series of developing tropical lows will have spun off the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea over the previous days, tracking south and merging with a broad trough of low pressure north of New Zealand.

This is expected to rapidly strengthen a broad E’ly fetch in our prime swell window, and will generate a solid E’ly swell that’s expected to push through for Wednesday, ahead of a peak in size on Thursday.

The main risk I see with this system is that the fetch is expected to strengthen as it tracks south, but at the same time a strong front will push north from the Southern Ocean, realigning the tropical system towards the south (away from our swell window). So it may only spend a brief period of time of maturity aimed in a favourable direction for East Coast swell generation, which will limit the swell potential from the strongest part of this weather system's cycle. 

At this stage Wednesday should see early 3-5ft E’ly swell building to 4-6ft across the coast by the afternoon, persisting at this size through Thursday, but there’s likely to be a peak of larger waves from the height of the low’s intensification, probably around Thursday lunchtime that could push north of 6ft and closer to 8ft. I don’t think it’ll last very long though (and confidence isn't very high right now that it'll eventuate).

Wave heights will then ease steadily from Friday morning. 

Wednesday’s surface conditions look tricky with a developing S’ly change likely to reach 25-30kts across the coast, which will blow out most exposed regions (early morning may have a brief window of offshore winds). As such, protected points/southern ends will have the best waves. 

The southerly fetch trailing Wednesday’s change will be broad though not overly strong; we should see a rapid increase into the 4-6ft range by the end of Wednesday afternoon, persisting around this size range into Thursday before easing slowly through Friday. 

Overall, both swells look to have a similar timeline though the east swell will kick in well before the south swell, and it’ll be all groundswell (whereas the S’ly swell will be initially windswell, morphing into mid-range energy). It's also worth pointing out that with two 4-6ft swells from differing directions in the water on Thursday, we are certainly more likely to see larger rogue sets at some swell magnets, when the swell trains merge together. 

We still need a few more days to iron our the specifics and identify the best windows of opportunity. At this stage, Thursday and Friday are probably your best bet for the most size and cleanest options. But I'll have more on that next week.

See you Monday!