Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 24th March)

Best Days: Tues PM/Wed AM: inconsistent E/NE swell with offshore winds. Thurs: large S'ly swell though with windy conditions. Best at protected spots. Fri: still solid from the south but with lighter offshore winds. Sat: smaller S'ly swell with early offshores. Sun/Mon: solid S'ly swell with offshore winds. 

Recap: Small inconsistent E’ly swell padded out the weekend with light variable winds. It’s a little smaller today but equally clean. 

This week (Apr 25 - 28)

Looks like the low generating our inbound E/NE swell for the coming days sped up a little over the weekend. As such our expected swell increase is now due some 6-10 hours earlier than what was tipped on Friday.

Early Tuesday morning will see tiny residual lines from today, but mid-late morning should herald the leading edge of this new swell that should reach a peak late in the day or overnight, up to 2-3ft at exposed locations by mid-afternoon and maybe some 3ft+ sets in the few hours before dark if we're lucky.

The only concern for Tuesday is the presence of a freshening northerly breeze as a front approaches from the south-west. We will see a late NW tendency in the local wind field but it’s hard to be confident when this will happen. Fortunately, the likely time frame of this occurring (late afternoon) is also when the surf is expected to peak so hopefully we’ll see some good conditions for the late session. Just keen in mind that set waves will be very inconsistent. 

This swell is expected to peak overnight and then ease slowly through Wednesday. Surf conditions should be very good at first under a moderate W/NW breeze but as the front crosses the coast mid-afternoon, we’ll see the offshore wind strength ratchet up to 30kts+. So aim for a morning surf when it’ll be more manageable. Expect very inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets at dawn, easing throughout the day. 

As the front clears to the east a low pressure system will develop across the southern Tasman Sea. This is expected to drive gale force S’ly winds through our near swell window overnight Wednesday and in turn will generate a very large swell for Thursday, somewhere north of 6ft to maybe 6-8ft at south facing beaches. Early winds could be SW (at strength) but will probably shift S/SW throughout mid-late morning, and maybe even S’ly throughout the afternoon at some locations. 

The east swell will be all gone by this time but the south swell should provide solid waves even at sheltered locations (most open beaches 4-5ft, but down to 2ft+ at southern ends).

The S’ly fetch will remain active through most of Thursday which should translate to plenty of size for early Friday though an easing trend will occur during the day. Early 6ft+ sets at south facing beaches will ease to 3-5ft during the day, and winds should ease to a lighter W/SW early morning. Expect smaller surf at locations not completely open to the south.

This weekend (Apr 29 - 30)

Another series of fronts rounding the Tasmanian corner on Friday night will generate strong renewal of south swell for the weekend.

Initially, Saturday will start off with a combination of easing residual swell from Friday, and some small refracted S’ly swell from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait (occ 3ft sets at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere). 

Conditions will be clean with early W’ly winds but a front associated with this pattern will clip the coast during the day, driving fresh S/SW winds across the region (for reference, mid-late afternoon across the Sydney basin, earlier to the south and later to the north). 

The fetch trailing this front should renew a solid 4-6ft across south facing beaches into Sunday, however with the front clearing quickly to the east, winds should ease to a lighter W’ly breeze through the morning, with afternoon sea breezes. 

Once again, beaches not facing due south will be smaller in size but with favourable conditions there should be great waves at many beaches on Sunday.

Next week (May 1 onwards)

The parent low to the weekend’s change looks like it’ll be quite strong, but much further south in latitude and less favourably aligned within our swell window. As such, a slightly smaller, longer period S’ly groundswell is expected to fill into the coast on Monday as the short range energy from Sunday eases in size. This should maintain early sets between 4ft and possibly 6ft at south facing beaches (centered around well-focused offshore reefs) with an easing trend likely into the afternoon. Expect smaller surf elsewhere. It should be high quality south swell though.

Looking further ahead and yet another strong frontal outbreak is expected later Monday that should kick up another strong south swell for Tuesday and Wednesday. More on this in future forecast updates.