Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 2nd November)

Best Days: Sun, Mon, Tues, Wed: strong series of south swells with good winds early.

Recap: Tuesday offered fun waves with an easing southerly swell and a light offshore breeze, and smaller surf was reported through the afternoon. Today we’ve seen an unexpected south swell arrive across Southern NSW, sourced from a deep Southern Ocean low that tracked south of Tasmania on Monday. As comprehensively detailed in the comments section of Monday’s notes, the wave models completely missed this system, and it was dismissed as a source (by yours truly) on Monday because the low was contained within a broad zonal flow, and the low itself was travelling NW-SE, perpendicular to the swell window, at great speed, which reduced its theoretical potential. Unfortunately, it seems a brief but intense period within our acute southerly swell window was just enough to generate an impressive flush of southerly groundswell, with sets around 3ft at south facing beaches. 

This week (Nov 3rd - 4th)

Today’s south swell has me a little on edge.

There’s nothing like a mystery swell to heighten the senses, and make you completely reevaluate every single slither of fetch aimed remotely towards - or even away from - our swell window. 

So, with a flukey southerly swell an outside chance for Thursday, I’ve taken another look at the source, and deemed it a non-event. The frontal passage generating this small southerly swell is simply too zonal in nature and wind speeds aren’t very strong either.

There was a hope that a small kink at the back of the fetch would allow a small spread of energy to move up the coast but in reality I’m doubtful that we’ll see much more than a lazy, inconsistent mix of leftover swell (from today) and new swell with 1-2ft sets at south facing beaches. 

That being said, the Hunter can often draw in these kinds of acute south swells pretty well so a few bigger waves are possible here - but it’s not worth working around. 

Otherwise, beaches not open to the south will see very small inconsistent E’ly swell from a distant mid latitude low way out near Tahiti last week. It’s too far away to be viewed as a serious swell source but there may be a few little waves at open beaches every so often.

Early light winds will give way to an afternoon NE sea breeze so aim for an early surf for the best conditions.

Another similarly zonal front across the Tasmanian region on Thursday looks even less favourable for swell production for Southern NSW so Friday’s shaping up to be very small out of the south, just a foot or so at south swell magnets and little elsewhere. The trickle of long range E’ly swell should continue through Friday though no major size is expected and the breaks between sets could be twenty or thirty minutes. 

Again, early light winds will give away to a northerly or north-east flow into the afternoon.

This weekend (Nov 5th - 6th)

A strong front will enter the lower Tasman Sea on Saturday morning, generating a strong southerly swell thats due to reach the South Coast in the afternoon and the Sydney region probably around dinner time. The latest model runs have slightly pulled back the timing of this swell - we may not see any appreciable size (north of Wollongong) until after the sun goes down. In any case, the afternoon’s conditions looks like it’ll be spoiled with a southerly change. Conditions will be clean early under a pre-frontal NW breeze but the surf will be tiny residual energy at best.

Sunday looks much better with a strong S’ly groundswell producing 4-5ft waves at south facing beaches, up to 6ft+ in the Hunter, and early light W’ly winds preceding a light afternoon sea breeze. Beaches not open to the south will be much smaller but there should be a good spread of strong swell energy across most coasts on Sunday.

Next week (Nov 7th onwards)

Two swell sources will contribute strong southerly swell for the coast on Monday.

Firstly, the parent low to the weekend's frontal progression will round the Tasmanian corner on Sunday, generating a long period but smaller swell for the start of the new week. In addition to this, a vigorous secondary front exiting eastern Bass Strait late Sunday is expected to push up quite a bit of size on Monday; the combined energy should reach 4-6ft at south facing beaches with bigger bombs pushing 6ft to maybe 6-8ft across exposed Hunter coasts. 

Conditions look great for the early session but freshening N’ly winds will spoil conditions into the afternoon. 

These southerly swells will then slowly ease through Tuesday as N/NW winds freshen across the region. 

Another vigorous front is then expected to push through the same region of our swell window on Tuesday, generating a strong S’ly swell for Wednesday that should reach 4-6ft at south facing beaches once again (bigger in the Hunter). 

All in all - an active period ahead from our south swell window, but we’ll need to refine the particulars on Friday as the close proximity of these systems to the mainland means that small changes in their position can have a drastic impact on the projected surf size. 

See you Friday!