Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 10th February)

Best Days: Each morning this week, protected southern corners on Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

Recap: 

The NSW coast has seen a couple of days of smaller surf, with sets generally holding in the 2ft range. However, we did see a slight lift in energy on Tuesday afternoon as easterly energy filled in off a small intensification of a lingering Tasman low. This morning, the sets were managed to hold in the 2ft range, offering fun options under light winds.

This week (Thursday 11th - Friday 12th):

A ridge has been setting up over northern parts of the Tasman sea over the past few days, sending a persistent southeasterly airflow towards the coast of QLD. Although the alignment looks terrible for our coastline, sideband energy should still lead to a pulse due to fill in on Thursday.

Using today’s 2ft sets as a bench mark, open beaches should pick up sets in the 2-3ft range, possibly nudging the 3ft range at times.

A small amount of residual southerly energy should also be breaking across exposed south swell magnets off the back of a small groundswell which has been moving up the coast today, with sets in the 1-2ft range.

Early morning breezes look to be very light northwesterly, although soon being excluded by an increasing east/northeasterly seabreeze.

The surf is then likely to ease back a touch into Friday, however the Tasman ridge providing Thursday’s pulse should remain established, just weaker. As a result, the surf should fade from the 2ft range throughout the day, largest across open beaches.

Again, a light westerly breeze is on the cards for Friday morning, with seabreezes progressively increasing from mid-morning.

This weekend (Saturday 13th - Sunday 14th):

The easing trend should continue throughout Saturday, although not falling below 1-2ft across open beaches. A tiny amount of windswell should build during Saturday afternoon with a small northerly local fetch as it develops along the South Coast and spreads northward throughout the day.

Unfortunately, the chance of a clean wave will be fairly brief, with light north/northwesterly breezes expected to swing north/northeasterly and increase during the morning, becoming gusty from the northeast during the afternoon

This local fetch doesn’t look anything special, only generating around 1-2ft of short range energy which looks to peak on Sunday. There is still an element of model uncertainty regarding the timing of a southerly chance on Sunday, some models picking morning, some afternoon. In either scenario, keep an eye out for a period where winds swing offshore leading to a window of small, clean peaky surf.

Next week (Monday 15th onward):

Next week holds much better prospects for surf as we energy fill in from the northern and eastern swell windows.

Initially, we should see a kick in size for Monday morning generated by a ridge over northern Tasman which looks to steer a good looking east/northeasterly fetch of 20-30kts towards the coast.

As for size, open beaches should build to the 3ft range by the afternoon, with south facing beaches picking up a low quality windswell following a gusty southerly breeze the night before. These exposed south facing beaches are expected to fade from the 3ft range throughout the day.

Moderate southerly breezes look to ease marginally throughout the day swinging southeasterly. Protected southern corners of the open beaches may have workable options early with the potential for breezes to tend south/southwesterly at times.

Tuesday is looking like a day to keep an eye on as we see a better pulse fill in off a deepening tropical low (possibly cyclone later this week) which is forecast to dip south and act upon the active sea state whipped up by the aforementioned ridge.

We have the potential to pick up inconsistent sets in the 3-5ft range, with residual energy from the day before providing 2-3ft options while you wait for the sets.

Make the most of the early session as winds look to be light and potentially offshore preceding an increasing southerly airflow. As breezes increase, protected southern ends will be the way to go.

Long range energy is expected to steadily fade throughout Wednesday, although south facing beaches should only build as a gusty southerly breeze whips up a short range, low quality windswell.

Further out to sea, the broader system responsible for this gusty southerly change - a strong front and cut-off low looks to steer a really good looking captured south/southeasterly fetch of 35-45kts towards the coast throughout Wednesday.

Being this far out, we should only consider the swell off this system tentatively, however if this scenario comes off, south facing beaches have the potential to see a solid swell in the 6ft+ range on Thursday.