Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 9th November)

Best Days: Wednesday afternoon, Thursday morning and Friday morning.

Recap:

For those who were out early on Saturday morning, conditions were clean along the Sydney and Illawarra coast under light offshore breezes. A fun east/northeasterly swell was still providing the goods with open beaches offering peaks in the 3ft range. It started to turn off around mid morning as winds swung south/southeasterly and eventually onshore by midday.

South facing beaches were picking up surf in the 2-3ft range on Sunday, however the quality wasn’t great under a dicey southerly flow. 

This afternoon, the swell has faded further with weak and crumbly peaks in the 2ft range, slightly bigger across the Hunter.

This week (Tuesday 10th - Friday 13th):

Tuesday is looking very much like a lay day. Head to work, get those chores done around the house or fix the dings in your boards because there are no real prospects of any decent size or fresh energy.

All coasts are likely to fade from today to a weak 1-2ft throughout the day. If this is your only day to find a wave, head for a south swell magnet in the early morning where you’ll pick up the most size  off a long range but undersized southerly groundswell under light north/northwesterly breezes. As the morning wears on, breezes will swing to the northeast and increase slightly bringing a decline in quality.

Wednesday has better prospects. We are expecting a very long period groundswell to fill in to south facing beaches. This is the same swell which has been providing enticing lines across Victoria today. With these long periods however comes inconsistency. The sets should be in the 2ft range in the morning, building to the 2-3ft range later with periods up around 18-19 seconds, however the wait between waves will be pretty lengthy. Take a book.

Open beaches will see a small amount of refracted energy thanks to the long periods, however the size difference will be quite noticeable. A light/moderate southerly breeze looks to dominate along the Illawarra and Sydney coasts in the morning, slowly swinging east/southeast and easing in the afternoon, while Newcastle is more likely to just sit under an east/southeasterly flow all day.

Winds should remain light, especially in the afternoon so the quality should remain pretty workable despite a few bumps and soft lips.

Thursday has the potential to be one of the better days of the week, particularly in the morning where all coasts should be under a northerly airflow. As the afternoon wears on however, there’s a fairly good chance of winds swinging northeasterly from mid morning and increasing.

In terms of surf, we are likely to see a mix of swells in the water, making for a slightly tricky forecast. 

Firstly, an underlying southerly groundswell will provide options in the 2-3ft range virtually all day across south facing beaches, larger along the Hunter. However, a small, but fairly gusty easterly fetch is likely to set up off the South Coast as the pressure gradient tightens between a Tasman ridge and a tough over inland Australia adding an element of short range energy into the mix.

The alignment of this fetch to the Illawarra, Sydney and Hunter coasts is not ideal, however we should still see short range southeasterly energy in the 2ft range off this system.

The combination of southerly swells and northerly component winds really means one thing, head to a south facing beach or a protected northern corner of an open beach. Here you’ll make the most of the size and find the cleanest options.

An easing trend will ensue across all coasts on Friday, fading from the 2ft range. A southerly change associated with the aforementioned trough is looking to move up the coast on Friday, leading to a window of light winds from early morning until mid-late morning. Sure enough, the timing will probably change slightly in the coming days, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

This weekend (Saturday 14th - Sunday 15th):

Models suggest that the a low pressure system may develop off the coast of NSW on Friday, however it’s exact location is still varied. There is a good chance that this system will develop off the far South Coast, generating a small but very intense southerly fetch on it’s western quadrants.

In this scenario, a short range southerly swell has the potential to build into the 6ft range at south facing beaches late on Saturday (subject to change), however we should really be prepared for a fair amount of model change in the coming week.

Lets see how it pans out.