Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 8th July)

Best Days: Thurs/early Fri: fun but very inconsistent south swell with mainly light winds Thursday, freshening from the north Friday. Mon/Tues/Wed: chance for a very large south swell (confidence low on timing, size and conditions).

Recap: Tuesday morning delivered great waves with early light winds ahead of a moderate southerly change that pushed across the coast throughout the day. Winds have gone back to a light/variable pattern today (although still lingering cross-shore in the Hunter) and a new south swell has filled in, with set waves managing between 3ft and 4ft across the open beaches across the greater southern NSW coast. 

This week (July 9 - 10)

No major changes to the outlook for the next few days. The current south swell should continue through Thursday, and local winds are looking to be light and variable again under the influence of a high pressure system slowly tracking eastward through the southern Tasman Sea. The swell will continue to be lully at times but otherwise should provide good surf at south facing beaches, anywhere between 3ft and occasionally 4ft. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

Friday will see this south swell slowly ease in size, with the morning offering the best waves (early 2-3ft+sets at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere). However, we will also see freshening northerly winds as a significant cold front begins to approach the western part of the state, tightening the pressure gradient across the coastal region.

At this stage there’s some divergence in the model guidance as to how strong local winds will get (most likely trend is light early, moderate by mid-late morning, then fresh through the afternoon) however there seems to be a broad agreement that winds will veer to the northwest around early-mid afternoon. 

So, the upshot of this is that the early session will offer the biggest and best waves on Friday, but if it becomes bumpy through the late morning/lunchtime period, a late cleanup is certainly on the cards (albeit with smaller surf). I’d recommend getting in for a dawn session just to be safe.

This weekend (July 11 - 12)

On Monday, I mentioned that the weekend had pretty low potential for surf. 

Unfortunately, I can confirm today that the outlook hasn’t changed. I’d seriously considering opportunities away from the coast this weekend, unless fishing or kayaking is your kinda thing.

In short, Friday’s northerly flow is expected to be too narrow and too short-lived to generate any meaningful surf across the region. We may see tiny waves from this source on Saturday, as well as some very small, inconsistent residual energy from Friday’s easing south swell, but I’d be surprised if it reached 1.5ft at the swell magnets (mainly south facing, smaller elsewhere). Conditions are however looking very good with freshening NW winds. 

On Sunday, we’re looking at flat, windy conditions just about everywhere with strengthening W/NW tending W’ly winds as the front crosses the coast. This system isn’t expected to developing within our swell window until Monday so we can rest assured that there’ll be nothing happening in the surf department for the second half of the weekend.

Next week (July 13 onwards)

Early next week looks potentially quite sizeable. The developing low off the South Coast has been upgraded in recent model runs, although it still doesn’t quite tick the right boxes to be called an East Coast Low (progged rainfall amounts are low, and the system moves eastwards away from the coast, not parallel). As such it looks like being a big beefy Tasman Low.  

Getting a firm grip on the timing of the initial upwards swell trend is also hard, as each model run is moving the position of the low around - and on some occasions, the S/SW gales on the western flank have actually been positioned over land. However at this stage it seems likely that Monday will exhibit a rapid increase all day with wave heights likely to reach 8ft+ at south facing beaches by the late afternoon, with accompanying W/SW tending SW gale force winds. 

This broad trend (large, windy south swell) is likely to continue through Tuesday however it’s worth pointing out that confidence is only low to moderate on the specifics right now. The reason for this is that the models are suggesting a series of polar fronts SW of Tasmania will push up into SE Australia and become absorbed into the broader Tasman Low early next week - a great thing for the alps as it’ll dump lots of snow across the barren ski fields - but it also puts a risk of the synoptic flow developing a strong westerly component. This could very well shave a considerable amount of size off projected wave heights on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Nevertheless, we’re looking at a sustained period of low pressure across the southern Tasman Sea, so on the balance the chances of solid south swell persisting for much of next week remains quite favourable. We just won’t be able to pin down the specifics until Friday at the earliest, that’s all.

See you then!