Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th April)

Best Days: Tues: brief window of OK winds at dawn with a punchy S'ly swell. Wed/Thurs: Easing S/SE swell with OK winds in the morning. Sat/Sun: strong NE swell with great conditions developing as winds swing offshore (Sat AM still a little iffy right now).

Recap: Pumping beachies right across the coast on Saturday with clean conditions and 2-3ft of inconsistent E/NE swell (bigger surf reported down south). Wave heights fell away slightly through Sunday morning but a fresh short range S’ly swell kicked up in the afternoon with 4-5ft waves at south facing beaches, albeit cold and blustery with fresh W/SW tending SW and sometimes even S/SW winds. Wave heights held in close to this size range this morning, although have eased slightly, and it’s smaller at beaches not completely open to the south. We saw a longer morning period of W/SW winds before the southerlies kicked in (late morning/lunch) so conditions are bumpy this afternoon at open stretches.

This week (Apr 28 - May 1)

A large high in the Bight is directing fresh to strong southerly winds through the Tasman Sea, and this is generating southerly swell that’ll dominate the southern NSW coast for the next few days. We should see a brief morning SW’er in most locations on Tuesday (and even W/SW at a few spots, such as the Northern Beaches) but this window won’t last as long as it did this morning. As such, you will need to surf very early to score the best waves.

South facing beaches should hold out in a similar size range as per this afternoon, somewhere in the 3-4ft+ range but it’ll be bigger up in the Hunter. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south - they’ll see refracted south swell but also a small pulse of long range (and very inconsistent) E/NE swell from a broad tropical system way out NE of New Zealand mid-late last week. There won’t be much more than about 2ft from this source but it’ll mix in nicely with the south swell. 

Although the storm track will remain active from today through Tuesday, it will focus more SW/NE in alignment which is clockwise away from our swell window. As such, Wednesday will probably see a minor decrease in size and strength - still around 3ft+ at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere, bigger in the Hunter) and with early light W/SW winds tending S’ly then SE throughout the morning. Once again, early surfers will score the biggest and best waves. Expect smaller surf into the afternoon.

A minor reinforcing pulse of new S’ly groundswell is due into the Far South Coast late Wednesday, and should be in the water across Sydney beaches early Thursday morning with inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. By this time, our distant east swell will have dried up completely so we’ll be back to very small surf at remaining beaches. We’re looking at a freshening E’ly breeze throughout the day as a coastal trough develops up north, but the early morning should see a period of light variable winds. I’ll fine tune this in Wednesday’s update though.

Friday looks pretty dynamic, with the North Coast trough deepening considerably - possibly forming an East Coast Low - before the whole pattern drifts southwards. 

Right now the pattern is a little hard to be confident in, because model guidance isn’t in agreeance right now, and the speed of the trough’s southward track could bring about some major changes in a short space of time. 

Current thinking is that we’ll see strengthening E/NE tending NE winds and a rapidly building short range NE swell that should reach a bumpy 4-5ft or more at exposed NE facing beaches by the end of the day (smaller in the morning, and at south facing locations).  

With these winds, there won’t be many sheltered options - however it’s worth keeping a close eye on the model forecasts because if the trough moves quicker than expected, we could see light variable (or even offshore ) winds develop late in the day. This is more likely to happen on Saturday but at this early stage it can’t be ruled out for late Friday.

This weekend (May 2 - 3)

Size won’t be a problem on Saturday. This NE swell should be reaching a peak during the afternoon - current estimates are in the 5-6ft range at exposed NE facing beaches - but the wildcard is the local winds. They’ll be highly contingent on (1) whether we see a closed low form, and (2) whether that low tracks south, or east (both options are fine by me), rather than stalling to our immediate north.

The good news is that while the models are not in agreeance about the formation of a low, they are in general agreement that the broader surface trough will slowly push east into the Tasman over the weekend, so Saturday’s winds should certainly improve from Friday.

However, this could mean anything from trending light and variable, to freshening westerly - and there’ll be a difference in surface conditions depending on what eventuates.

So for now the short story for Saturday is: strong NE swell with rapidly improving conditions. Gut feel is that we’re going to see a westerly breeze by the afternoon, if not earlier, but watch this space for updates. 

As for Sunday, with an approaching Long Wave Trough to the south-west of the continent, we’ll probably see the trough/low in the Tasman continue a slow eastward track, resulting in a continuation of westerly winds. The NE swell is likely to have reached a peak by this time and will probably be trending downwards, but there should still be some solid sets early morning (maybe 4-6ft for a few hours).

Also bear in mind that the South Coast (south from the Illawarra) will pick up bigger waves from this source due to the longer, more favourable aligned fetch length (possible sets in the 6-8ft range late Sat/early Sun). Conversely, the northern Hunter coast is slightly shadowed from NE swells (due to the Hunter curve out to Seal Rocks) so expect smaller waves than the Sydney coast in this region. 

Next week (May 4 onwards)

Despite the trough (or low) moving eastwards through the weekend and into early next week, we’re likely to see a broad NE infeed from the South Pacific at the same time, which will continue to supply small to moderate E/NE swell through the first half of next week.

In fact, with the approaching Long Wave Trough unlikely to reach our longitudes until next Tuesday or Wednesday, we’ll probably see the trades restrengthen E/SE of New Caledonia, which should maintain energy from this quadrant through the rest of the week (even if only small in size).

Otherwise, the next major synoptic develops will hinge around how the LWT tracks past Tasmania. Right now there’s a suggestion that it may peak before this time, resulting in a weaker storm track through our south swell window (once the backside of the LWT clears east of Tasmania later next week or the weekend). But that’s a very long time away, and we’ve got much more important things to monitor until then! See you Wednesday.