Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th March)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: small E/NE swell with offshore winds. Sat/Sun: fun south swell with morning offshores. 

Recap: Small NE wind waves on Tuesday with early offshores ahead of a gusty southerly change mid-morning (earlier down south). A new S/SE swell pushed up a little bigger than expected this morning, and conditions were better than forecast at most locations with early offshores (which were only expected in a few spots such as the Northern Beaches). 

This week (Mar 26 - 27)

The front responsible for this morning’s surf formed a small low in the Tasman Sea this morning, and although it briefly intensified it is rotating away from our swell window as it tracks eastward. So, it's not viewed as a quality source of swell for the end of the week.

Despite this, we should see some lingering S/SE swell at exposed beaches early Thursday morning (inconsistent 2ft+ sets at dawn, smaller from mid-morning onwards), in addition to a similarly sized, but inconsistent E/NE swell generated by TC Reuben on Sunday and Monday, way out south-east of Fiji.

The E/NE swell is modeled to trend upwards during the day and so will probably be biggest in the afternoon. However buoy data in SE Qld seems to have picked up an earlier-than-expected arrival of east swell (likely from TC Rueben) so we may see this forward trend in Sydney too (i.e. steady size all day from the E/NE). However, keep in mind that set waves will be very inconsistent from this source.

As such, Thursday looks pretty fun in the surf department with generally light to moderate NW winds tending variable throughout the day ahead of a fresh W’ly change in the evening.

On Friday, the S/SE swell will be all but gone and the E/NE swell should continue in much the same fashion as Thursday (again, bear in mind the inconsistent nature of this swell), with an easing trend into the afternoon - so probably somewhere in and around the 2ft range for the morning session. Conditions are looking pretty good on the surface with freshening W/SW winds. So aim for the beach breaks and be prepared to wait some time for the bigger waves.

Very late in the day, we may see a small pulse of new south swell from a strong front pushing across the SE corner of the country. We’re not really expecting the bulk of this swell to fill in until Saturday however there is a chance that reliable south swell magnets may pick up a late increase in the hour or two before sunset.  

This weekend (Mar 28 - 29)

After Monday’s slight downgrade for the weekend outlook, the good news is that we’ve had a slight upgrade for Saturday over the last few model runs. The low pushing east of Tasmania on Friday looks like it’ll develop reasonably well inside our south swell window, and winds should be generally favourable all weekend.

Wave heights are expected to reach 3-4ft across Sydney’s south facing beaches throughout Saturday, via two separate pulses from two individual fetches surrounding the primary low - a strong W/SW fetch existing eastern Bass Strait on Friday, plus a better aligned S/SW fetch pushing up Tasmania’s East Coast later in the day and into the evening. The exact trend for the day is hard to pick but the second pulse will probably be the bigger of the two (arriving in the afternoon).

The Hunter often picks up these swells even better so 4-5ft sets are possible at times. However, beaches not open to the south - across all regions - will see much smaller surf (being refracted south swell, plus a few stray lingering sets of E/NE swell).

As for conditions, we’re not expecting much synoptic wind as the front will have cleared to the central Tasman Sea. So, early light W/SW winds are likely in most areas, tending light to moderate S’ly then SE throughout the day. 

On Sunday, wave heights will ease back in size - we may see a few stray 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches in Sydney early morning (bigger again across the Hunter) but it’ll drop steadily to 2-3ft by mid-late morning, with slightly smaller waves through the afternoon. Again, expect much smaller surf at beaches not completely open to the south.

Sunday’s conditions are looking excellent for the early session with early light off shores ahead of moderate afternoon nor’easters.

Next week (Mar 30 onwards)

Still nothing of major interest for next week. A steady procession of very strong fronts through the Southern Ocean will provide intermittent long period south swell (only small in size at the southern NSW coast due to the poorly aligned storm track), but otherwise there are no other significant developments expected in the Tasman Sea or our tropical swell window. Hopefully we’ll have better new in Friday’s update.