Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 15th September)

Best Days: Tues: small window of opportunity mid-late afternoon once winds swing offshore. Wed: good south swell all day with good winds. Thurs: strong south swell building. Fri AM: good south swell with early offshores. 

Recap: Poor surf right across the weekend and into this morning. Seems to be the first few signs of a small new S/SE swell starting to fill into the South Coast; may reach Sydney’s south-facing beaches on dark.

This week (Sep 16-19)

Quite a mixed bag of waves this week. The timing is all over the shop though so your best options to score surf will be between the various brief windows of opportunity that crops up. I’ll try to identify as many of them as possible in today’s notes.

Right now we’ve got a fresh S/SE swell moving into the region, generated by a low that tracked south of Tasmania yesterday and into the southern Tasman Sea. This is the first of two pulses expected to originate from this low, however Tuesday’s energy is not going to be especially big and will (unfortunately) peak in the early hours of the morning.

However the biggest problem we have on Tuesday is a freshening NE airstream in conjunction with an eastward moving trough over the state. These winds will wipe out most beaches on Tuesday however sheltered northern corners should still have some options early morning if you don’t mind a few lumps and bumps.

Set waves are expected to be in the 2ft+ range at south facing beaches, with smaller surf elsewhere due to the swell direction, and wave heights will ease slowly during the day. The northern Hunter may also pick up a little more size than this (say, 3ft+).

Tuesday afternoon has a small window of opportunity though, with the trough expected to cross the coast early mid afternoon. This should create a wind change to the NW just after lunch, before tending fresh W’ly mid-late afternoon. Additionally, the morning’s freshening NE winds should have whipped up a small NE windswell for NE facing beaches.

So, if Tuesday morning doesn’t float your boat, the afternoon session should have some fun waves with a peaky combination of swells and rapidly improving surface conditions. 

Tuesday’s late W’ly change will be associated with a series of fronts that are expected to cross the region from Wednesday morning right through into the weekend. They’ll all contribute to an ongoing series of short range south swell throughout the remainer of the forecast period, whilst winds fluctuate between the west and the south.

The first front to drop into our near swell window (early hours of Wednesday morning) will kick up just a tiny level of south swell for the coast, but we’ll concurrently see a stronger secondary pulse originating from the low already in the southern Tasman Sea today. This is expected to provide good quality, if somewhat inconsistent 2-3ft waves at south facing beaches for much of Wednesday (a little bigger in the Hunter), with smaller surf at remaining locations. Conditions should remain clean with fresh W/SW winds all day.  

Overnight on Wednesday a stronger front will cross the region, forming a band of S/SW gales parallel to the coast throughout Thursday. This is expected to generate a bigger south swell for the second half of the day, however it’ll be a little more blustery with gusty W/SW tending SW winds throughout the day (winds may swing S/SW on the South Coast). 

Exposed south facing beaches in Sydney should reach 3-4ft+ by the afternoon and the Hunter region should see 4-5ft+ sets, however as per usual we’ll see much smaller surf at beaches not completely open to the south.

Thursday’s south swell is then expected to ease a little into Friday, ahead of a stronger renewal very late in the day (or perhaps overnight) associated with a S/SW change. For the most part we’re looking at moderate W/SW winds and 3-4ft waves at south facing beaches in Sydney (bigger in the Hunter, but smaller at non-south facing beaches). At this stage there’s a fair chance that by mid-afternoon, gusty southerly winds will wipe out conditions at exposed beaches so for now the morning is your best time to consider surfing. 

This weekend (Sep 20-21)

The final two fronts in this series are expected to push through a much broader region of our swell window from Friday through Saturday, and in doing so will probably generate the largest pulse of southerly swell from this episode. 

The first is expected to arrive overnight Friday, providing solid 4-5ft waves at south facing beaches in Sydney on Saturday, whilst a second pulse on Sunday should maintain similar wave heights across the region. 

Unfortunately, winds are looking a little dicey over the weekend, due to the eastward position of the Long Wave Trough which is expected to be closer to New Zealand by this time, resulting in a mainly southerly airstream across most of the coast. However local influences should see early periods of SW winds.  I’ll take a closer look on Wednesday at the specifics.

Longer term (Sep 22 onwards)

Nothing major on the long term charts at this stage although the models are maintaining plenty of south swell through the central Tasman Sea off the backside of this Long Wave Trough. So, confidence is reasonable for a continuation of moderate south swell activity through the first half of next week.