South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 20th March)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun surf early Tues with offshore winds and easing surf
• Fun waves building Fri, peaking Sat/Sun, initially a little windy but still workable (Sun the pick of the period)
• Small surf next week

Recap

The weekend was generally small and uninteresting, and although a new swell has built tp 2-3ft today, winds have been fresh from the west tending south-west.

This week (Mar 21 - 24)

Early Tuesday still has a brief window of options for keen surfers. We’re expecting the breeze to throttle back overnight and swing northerly, and although surf size will be easing, we may see some leftover 2-3ft sets at dawn. Get in early for the most size. 

Small waves and generally light winds will occupy Wednesday and Thursday before the next frontal sequence kicks in overnight, delivering fresh westerlies into Friday and Saturday.

Later Thursday, we’ll start to to see the first new energy from overlapping swell trains generated by another active polar storm track in the Southern Ocean. Initially, there won’t be much size and the long range energy will be very inconsistent, there may be some small options on offer throughout Friday up to 2-3ft by late afternoon (smaller earlier). 

This weekend (Mar 25 - 26)

The bulk energy from this next Southern Ocean sequence is expected to fill in over the weekend, sourced from a very strong though low-latitude fetch (see below).

The good news is that Saturday’s post-frontal westerlies won’t be terribly strong, and they’ll clear to the east by Sunday, allowing cleaner conditions with light variable winds. 

Let’s peg wave heights around the 3ft+ mark at most open South Arm beaches both days. Certainly looks pretty fun at this stage. 

Next week (Mar 27 onwards)

The weekend’s swells will slowly fade from Monday onwards, and at this stage it’s looking like we have an extended quiet period coming up thanks to a blocking high in our medium to far swell window. See you Wednesday!