Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday February 22nd)

Best Days: Beginners tomorrow morning and Saturday morning, Tuesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading S/SW swell tomorrow with strong N/NE tending E/NE winds
• Tiny inconsistent S/SE groundswell for Fri PM, easing Sat
• Strong N/NE tending E/NE winds Fri, N/NE Sat ahead of a S/SW change
• Building W/SW groundswell Sun PM with gusty S/SW winds, peaking Mon with strong S/SW winds
• Easing surf Tue with N tending SE winds

Recap

Bumpy waves to 3ft yesterday, workable for the keen, cleaner this morning and still 2ft. Winds have gone E'ly this afternoon creating lots of bumps and chops.

Still a bit of size yesterday AM

This week and weekend (Feb 23 - 26)

The current swell will continue to fade into the end of the week with 1ft sets tomorrow under a stronger N/NE breeze. Selected locations will be best for beginners before the swell bottoms out Friday morning.

As touched on in Monday's notes, there might be a tiny hint of S/SE groundswell to 1-1.5ft Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, generated by a low that formed south of New Zealand yesterday.

Strong N/NE winds are still expected Friday and Saturday mornings, with a trough bringing a S/SW change into Saturday afternoon.

Moving into next week, we've got some fun W/SW groundswell into later Sunday and more so Monday, generated by a great looking polar front developing south-east of the Heard Island region this evening and tomorrow morning.

It'll be elongated with a fetch of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds pushing slowly east through the end of the week, weakening south-west of us on Saturday.

The groundswell should arrive later Sunday, building to 2ft by dark but with S'ly winds in the wake of Saturday's change.

Monday should see stronger 3ft sets but winds again look to remain poor with strong S/SW winds as the trough deepens to our east. Tuesday looks the pick as winds shift N'ly and the swell eases from 2-3ft.

Longer term small surf is likely into the end of the week, but more on this Friday.