Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday February 1st)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday morning and possibly evening, Saturday morning, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent W/SW swell tomorrow with strong N/NE tending N/NW winds, easing later
• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell building Fri with early NW winds, tending S/SW mid-late AM, then S/SE. Winds possibly going back N late
• Easing W/SW swell Sat with a new S swell and fresh N/NW winds ahead of a late AM strong SW change
• Weak S/SW swell Sun with gusty SW winds
• Inconsistent but strong SW groundswell building Sun PM, easing Mon with W/NW tending S/SE winds
• Building S/SW swell Tue with W tending S/SW winds

Recap

Clean conditions with 2ft of swell yesterday morning ahead of sea breezes, similar this morning though giving into a strong onshore change mid-morning as a trough pushed through.

This weekend and next week (Feb 1 - 5)

The current run of mid-period W/SW swell energy will continue into tomorrow with fun 2ft sets due across Clifton under an all day offshore wind. An approaching low to our west will see strong N/NE winds tend N/NW into the afternoon, easing on dark.

This low will bring a new W/SW groundswell on Friday with it due to build through the morning ahead of a peak into the afternoon, thanks to a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds being generated around the north-western flank of the low as it sits south of Western Australia today.

Unfortunately for us the low will track north-east up and into South Australia, north of our swell window, with us relying on the earlier stages for swell in the South Arm.

Sets to 2-3ft are due to arrive by late morning across Clifton and winds look favourable and from the N/NW, but a shallow S/SW change is due by late morning, then tending S/SE as the low moves right across us (nothing too strong). There's a chance winds go back N late in the day as the low starts to move east, so keep an eye on that.

Friday's swell will ease into Saturday, but we're due to see a sneaky S'ly swell emanating off a fetch of strong to gale-force S/SE-SE winds through our southern swell window around the base of the low Friday.

This should pulse to 2-3ft and is a flukey source, with early N/NW winds expected to shift SW late morning as the low pushes east and away from us. Unfortunately strong SW winds are expected in its wake on Sunday, easing through the day along with a mix of swells easing from 2ft.

One final pulse of SW groundswell is also due to be in the mix later Sunday and Monday morning, generated by a strong extra-tropical low dipping south-east into polar latitudes while strengthening. It will produce a great fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds before weakening tomorrow evening, resulting in a moderate sized groundswell that should build to a good 3ft into Sunday afternoon, easing from 2-3ft Monday morning with a light W/NW offshore wind.

Longer term we may see some fun S/SW swell mid-week but with dicey winds as a weak polar front pushes up and under us. More on this Friday.