Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 13th)

Best Days: Monday selected spots, Tuesday morning, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny weekend with strengthening N/NE tending E/NE winds tomorrow, strong S/SW Sun
• Moderate sized W/SW tending SW swell Mon, easing into the PM and smaller Tue
• Light-mod E/NE winds, strengthening Mon with N/NE tending E/NE winds Tue
• Strong S/SW change arriving mid-morning Wed with a late increase in W/SW swell, peaking Thu AM
• Strong SW winds Thu, lighter Fri with smaller surf

Recap

Easing surf but great conditions yesterday morning with tiny 1-1.5ft waves for beginners. Today is tiny but clean early again.

This week and weekend (Jan 14 - 20)

There's not much to the coming weekend with tiny surf due to pad out most of it along with strengthening N/NE tending NE winds ahead of a trough, giving into a strong S/SW change around dawn on Sunday.

Now, the front linked to the change on Sunday will be attached to a deepening low to our west-southwest tomorrow.

We should see a moderate sized pulse of mid-period W/SW tending SW swell on Monday from this source with 2-3ft sets across Clifton in the morning, easing through the day and then down from 1-2ft on Tuesday.

The change will clear quickly into Monday allowing winds to ease and tend light E/NE into the morning, strengthening into the afternoon.

Tuesday looks a bit cleaner across Clifton with a moderate N/NE breeze, shifting E/NE into the afternoon again and strengthening.

Unfortunately another trough will bring a S/SW change on Wednesday morning, spoiling a new, inconsistent W/SW swell that's due into the afternoon and Thursday morning as strong SW winds persist.

The source of the W/SW energy is a distant polar low that will develop east of the Heard Island region. Inconsistent 2ft sets are due from this source, and some localised S/SW windswell looks to be a similar size from the trough.

Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards but clean 1-2ft surf is likely into Friday and next weekend. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!