Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday December 19th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Saturday, Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SW swell tomorrow with variable N/NE tending S/SE then E/NE winds
• Tiny Wed/Thu
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Fri, easing Sat
• Freshening S/SW winds Fri, N/NW tending W/NW Sat
• Possible good sized W/SW groundswell early next week

Recap

A lighter than expected wind provided lumpy, workable waves Saturday morning with our new SW groundswell coming in at 2-3ft, while yesterday was smaller with more variable breezes and a drop in swell back to 1-2ft.

This morning was cleaner and still 1-2ft with a small reinforcing swell.

This weekend and next week (Nov 19 - 25)

The coming outlook isn’t ideal across the South Arm, firstly owing to the lack of swell but secondly, when the best swell arrives late week, winds go onshore.

Tomorrow will be fun though with a small reinforcing SW swell due to maintain 1-2ft sets across Clifton and winds should be variable N/NE before fresh S/SE breezes kick in, tending E/NE later in the day.

Following this Wednesday and Thursday will be tiny ahead of a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell Friday.

This swell was discussed on Friday and is being generated by a strong but distant polar low firing up east of the Heard Island region. A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds are pushing east but will weaken quickly this evening, leaving an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for our state.

It should arrive Friday morning but peak into the afternoon with sets to 2ft+ due across Clifton, easing slowly Saturday from 2ft.

Unfortunately a trough is expected to bring a S/SW change early Friday morning, freshening through the day, spoiling the new swell. Saturday morning looks to be a better chance for a surf with a N/NW offshore, possibly holding from the W/NW as a weak front moves across us.

Sunday also looks clean but smaller and back to 1-2ft.

Longer term we may see a ‘bombing’ low forming south-west of Western Australia, bringing a fun W/SW groundswell for early next week, though check back for more on this Wednesday.