Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday November 18th)

Best Days: Early tomorrow, Tuesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent SW swell tomorrow AM, easing with strengthening N/NE tending NE winds
• Fading surf Sun with dawn N/NE tending gusty W/SW winds mid-AM
• Small W/SW windswell building later Mon with W/NW tending strong SW winds
• Moderate sized SW swell for Tue, biggest later, easing Wed with morning W/NW winds, tending strong SW Tue, gusty W/SW Wed
• Easing surf Thu with a fun reinforcing pulse under NW tending SE winds
• Smaller Fri with N winds

Recap

Clean conditions with fun sets to 2ft yesterday with the odd bigger one, similar today with the arrival of a new SW groundswell. We’ll see the waves holding all day but with afternoon sea breezes.

This weekend and next week (Nov 19 - 25)

We should see sets hanging in at that inconsistent 2ft range tomorrow morning thanks to one final pulse of reinforcing SW swell overnight, easing through the day.

Conditions will be workable early but deteriorate as winds freshen from the N/NE and then tend NE while strengthening.

Sunday will become tiny and winds will be N/NE at dawn but quickly shift W/SW and be strong from mid-morning.

Looking at the outlook for next week and it looks like we’ve got a downgrade in the expected size from the frontal progression moving in from the west thanks to it tracking too far north in latitude and having a weaker trailing fetch of SW winds projecting up and into us.

On Monday the front will move across us, but only bring weak W/SW winds and a small, 1-2ft if that of windswell to the coast later in the day along with strong SW winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday should reveal more size as a better, though patchy fetch of strong SW winds are projected up and into us, with a couple of stronger embedded burst of gales.

At this stage later Tuesday and early Wednesday look biggest with Tuesday morning coming in at 2-3ft, pulsing further towards 3ft+ later but with gusty W/NW tending strong SW winds.

Strong W/SW winds unfortunately look to persist through Wednesday with easing 3ft surf, cleaner Thursday when a small, reinforcing SW swell arrives. This looks to only be weak with continuing 2ft waves across Clifton with a NW offshore. Longer term there’s nothing too major on the cards but check back here on Monday for an update on how things are shaping up. Have a great weekend!