Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday October 31st)

Best Days: Dawn Wednesday and from mid-afternoon, protected spots Thursday, early Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf tomorrow with W/NW tending SW winds
• Moderate sized S-S/SE swell for Wed, peaking in the PM with dawn W/NW winds, tending gusty W/SW in the morning, then stronger W/NW-NW mid-late PM
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Thu/Fri/Sat with gusty W/SW winds Thu, early W/NW tending SW then S/SE winds on Fri
• Inconsistent moderate sized SW groundswell for Fri, easing Sat
• Secondary inconsistent SW groundswell late Sat, easing Sun
• Variable tending S/SE winds Sat, N/NE tending S/SE Sun

Recap

Plenty of swell Saturday but with average conditions thanks to a SW breeze, cleaner yesterday and a fun 2ft. Today it's still clean but the swell has faded.

This week and weekend (Nov 1 - 6)

We've got a tricky, complex forecast period ahead thanks to a low deepening south of us today, followed by a relatively weak but active frontal progression moving in from the west.

The low will generate a fetch of strong to near gale-force S/SE winds south of us tomorrow morning, with the swell from this source due to fill in on Wednesday.

It'll come out of the S-S/SE in direction and looks to be around 3ft, peaking into the afternoon.

Ahead of this swell, tomorrow looks tiny but clean early with a W/NW breeze, shifting SW late morning and then freshening.

Wednesday should see W/NW winds at dawn, tending gusty W/SW through the morning but then back to the W/NW-NW into the mid-late afternoon, as the S'ly swell peaks.

Come Thursday, the frontal progression from the west will move in, bringing strong W/SW winds (possibly W'ly early) along with some new mid-period SW swell.

Consistent 3ft surf is due across Clifton but with that average wind, similar Friday in size with lighter winds that should tip W/NW in the morning. This will be a short-lived window, with SW tending S/SE winds due to develop through the day.

Also in the mix Friday and then later Saturday/Sunday will be some inconsistent but stronger pulses of groundswell.

The first swell will be generated by a strong polar low that developed east of the Heard Island region yesterday and the second, a trailing fetch of NW gales sliding in behind it.

Size wise both look to be in the 3ft range on the sets across Clifton, that being Friday and late Saturday/early Sunday morning, but there'll also be mid-period levels of background swell in between pulses, maintaining 3ft sets.

Winds look variable Saturday morning ahead of S/SE sea breezes, N/NE tending SE on Sunday.

Longer term smaller swells are due into next week so try and make the most of the coming energy.