Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday October 17th)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Friday selected spots, Saturday morning beginners 

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell tomorrow with N winds
• S tending E, then S/SE winds on Wed
• Moderate sized SW swell building Wed PM, easing Thu
• Stronger SW swell building Thu PM, easing Fri
• SW winds Thu, strengthening N/NE Fri
• Tiny, fading surf Sat with N winds ahead of a S change

Recap

Great conditions each morning on the weekend with 1-1.5ft waves for the most part.

Today our better mix of W/SW and S/SW swell have filled in with strong 3ft sets across Clifton but with an early trough bringing onshore winds.

This week and weekend (Oct 18 - 23)

The strong low linked to today's swell, which is due to peak this afternoon now, was a little stronger and a better swell producer than forecast on Friday.

As a result tomorrow should still see 2-3ft sets across Clifton and conditions will be much cleaner with a N'ly offshore, persisting most of the day if not into the evening.

This looks to be a great day of surf with Wednesday morning coming in at a smaller 1-2ft.

Into Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon, back to back pulses of good sized SW swell are due, generated by strengthening lows moving in from the west over the coming days.

The first low will be smallest, generating a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds late in our swell window tomorrow.

The swell from this low should build Wednesday and reach 3ft into the afternoon but winds will deteriorate as the low brings S tending E winds in the morning ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

Thursday unfortunately looks to see SW winds as the second low clips us, with this generating a broader fetch of similar strength winds.

A larger swell is expected on Thursday afternoon from this source, reaching 4ft on the sets, then easing from 2-3ft on Friday.

Conditions look best on Friday but only in selected spots with a gusty, strengthening N/NE breeze.

Moving into the weekend, the surf will be tiny and fading Saturday with clean conditions, ideal for beginners, ahead of a trough and afternoon change.

Now, the models diverge regarding the deepening of this trough off our coast and a possible low formation, generating a stormy SE windswell next week. More on this Wednesday.