Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday October 14th)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday, Monday morning, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small inconsistent SW groundswell tomorrow with N/NW winds ahead of a strong, early PM S/SW change
• Small, reinforcing mid-period swell Sun AM, easing with N/NW tending variable winds
• Good moderate sized mix of SW and W/SW groundswells Mon with N/NW tending S/SW winds late AM
• Easing mix of swells Tue with N/NW tending E/NE winds

Recap

Tiny leftovers with choppy conditions under strong cross-shore winds yesterday, cleaner today but tiny and to 1ft.

This weekend and next week (Oct 15 - 21)

Looking at the weekend ahead, and a small pulse of inconsistent SW groundswell is due tomorrow, generated by a distant, short-lived polar low this week. Sets to 1-2ft are due and conditions will be clean in the morning with a N/NW offshore ahead of a strong S/SW change early afternoon.

This change will be attached to a fast tracking front pushing through our swell window and this should keep sets up around 1-2ft Sunday morning as winds shift back to the NW. Winds are due to go variable into the afternoon, keeping conditions relatively clean as the size eases a touch.

Now, into Monday we've got our fun pulse of SW groundswell, generated by a slow moving polar low developing to our south west this afternoon and evening. A tight fetch of W/SW gales will be generated, strengthening further while going more W. This should generate a decent sized pulse of SW groundswell Monday morning to 2-3ft across Clifton.

There'll also be a more consistent and what looks to be a slightly stronger W/SW groundswell in the mix on Monday, generated by a strong low forming south of the country tomorrow, projecting a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW-W winds through our swell window. This will generate 3ft swell by itself, also peaking Monday, with both swells easing back Tuesday from 2ft+.

Winds on Monday look great in the morning and N/NW ahead of a trough and S/SW change late morning, with Tuesday seeing N/NW tending E/NE winds.

Longer term the surf will slow down for the rest of the week so make the most of the waves Monday and Tuesday. Have a great weekend!