Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday September 23rd)

Best Days: This morning, Sunday, Monday afternoon, Tuesday, Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell tomorrow, easing through the day
• Building S/SE swell into tomorrow PM, easing Sun
• Strong but easing S/SE winds tomorrow
• N/NW tending light SE Sun
• Tiny Mon AM, with a new W/SW groundswell into the PM, peaking Tue
• N/NE tending NE winds Mon, variable tending fresh NE Tue
• Easing surf Wed with NE winds ahead of a late S/SW change
• S winds and W/SW swell next Thu/Fri

Recap

Good surf with clean conditions and an inconsistent W/SW swell to 2ft yesterday, similar this morning ahead of a trough and strong S/SW change around midday. So get out there this morning.

This weekend and next week (Sep 24 - 31)

The trough linked to today’s change will spoil a stronger W/SW groundswell for tomorrow and also generate some localised SE swell.

Strong but easing S/SE winds across Clifton tomorrow with 2-3ft sets, best Sunday with a N/NW offshore and easing mix of swells from 2ft+. Sea breezes look relatively light so there should be fun waves most of the day.

A low point in swell is due Monday morning ahead of a new pulse of inconsistent but fun W/SW groundswell into the afternoon.

This was generated by a strong polar low firing up around the Heard Island region, generating a fetch of gale to just below severe-gale W/SW winds yesterday evening. This will be followed by a secondary low on the weekend, producing a reinforcing pulse of better energy for Tuesday.

Inconsistent sets to 1-2ft are due into Monday afternoon with more consistent 2ft waves on Tuesday.

Winds on Monday look generally favourable with a N/NE tending NE breeze, with variable winds Tuesday morning ahead of a gusty NE’ly into the afternoon.

Come Wednesday a trough is expected to move through at some stage but we’ll see easing surf with N/NE winds ahead of it. The trough looks to form into a low to our east, bringing poor onshore S’ly winds into Thursday and Friday next week along with some long-range W/SW groundswell.

It looks like we’ll see plenty of swell continuing longer term but with troughy weather and dicey winds. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!