Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 10th)

Best Days: Selected breaks tomorrow, protected spots Sunday, selected breaks Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large S/SW swell tomorrow, building larger later with strengthening W/NW-W winds, shifting W/SW early PM
• Large S/SW groundswell Sun, easing a touch into the PM with strong W/SW tending SW winds
• Easing large S swell Mon with W/NW tending NW winds
• Easing S/SE swell Tue with N/NW winds
• New moderate sized S/SW groundswell later Tue, easing Wed with N tending NE winds

Recap

Solid surf yesterday and too big for Clifton but not overly sizey for other breaks. Today we’ve got our first pulse of considerably larger S/SW swell and with plenty more to come.

This weekend and next week (Jun 11 - 15)

We’re right in the middle of a strong progression of polar fronts up and into us with today’s 6ft or so of swell due to be replaced with even larger surf through tomorrow. This will be thanks to the strongest of the polar fronts projecting up and into us, generating a fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW winds on top of an active sea state.

This will generate larger 8ft surf into tomorrow late tomorrow afternoon (6ft before it) but with strengthening W/NW-W winds, shifting W/SW early afternoon.

Come Sunday the swell should still be in the 8ft range along with strong SW winds, though likely W/SW for a period in the morning. The easing trend will be slow thanks to the elongated nature of the polar fetch generating it and it will only be for the experienced.

On Monday we’ll see the size ease a touch more as the swell direction clocks a little more S’ly as the backside of the Southern Ocean gyre sits more south-southeast of us.

Winds will improve for exposed breaks and shift W/NW to NW through the day and we’ll still be seeing surf in that 6ft range across Clifton, easing slowly through the day.

The more exposed beaches are due to become more surfable from Tuesday with easing 3ft sets and great N/NW winds.

It looks like we’ll see one final pulse of S/SW groundswell late Tuesday and Wednesday morning from a polar low firing up south-west of us Sunday evening, with fun 3ft sets continuing across Clifton, easing into the afternoon and then down from 2ft Thursday.

Longer term the storm track looks to push north of us with mid-latitude fronts moving in from mid-late week, so make the most of the coming period. Have a great weekend!