Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 17th)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of W/SW swells tomorrow with light-mod W/SW tending fresher S/SW winds
• Easing mix of swells Wed with fresh S/SW tending weaker S/SE winds
• New S swell Thu with N tending E/NE winds, easing Fri with N tending S/SE winds
• Small SW swell Sat with S winds

Recap

Tiny surf on the weekend with similar conditions continuing into today.

This week and weekend (Jan 18 - 23)

We should see some new swell activity filling in this evening and peaking through tomorrow across the South Arm, emanating off a strong mid-latitude low that formed under the country on the weekend.

The low was initially too far north of our swell window to generate any decent size but has since slipped east-southeast while weakening, with it now tracking in from the south-west. It'll pass under us this evening.

Unfortunately it'll bring deteriorating conditions and winds tomorrow with a light to moderate, dawn W/SW breeze due to shift S/SW and strengthen through the day.

Size wise we're looking at surf mostly to 2ft with the possibility of the rare bigger set, easing Wednesday from 2ft with poor, fresh S/SW winds, weakening and tending S/SE through the day.

We've got a fun pulse of reinforcing S swell for Thursday though, generated as the tail of the low strengthens south of us tomorrow afternoon and evening, projecting a fetch of strong SW winds through our southern swell window.

This should maintain 2ft sets on Thursday, fading from 1-1.5ft Friday.

Conditions will clean up from Thursday with a light N'ly ahead of fresh E/NE afternoon breezes, N'ly on Friday morning ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

The models are showing a small pulse of SW swell for Saturday but this will be generated by poorly aimed fronts slipping down from the Indian Ocean towards the polar shelf. We may see 1-1.5ft of swell Saturday morning though a trough sitting to our east may bring S'ly winds.

We'll have to have a closer look at this Wednesday.

Longer term there's nothing major on the cards for next week, but check back Wednesday for the latest.