Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday December 17th)

Best Days: Sunday, Monday, protected spots Tuesday, Wednesday morning, early Thursday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Sun with gusty N/NE tending NW then W/SW
• Small, mid-period W/SW swell Mon with fresh N/NW tending W/NW winds
• Better, mid-period W/SW swell building Tue with W/NW tending W/SW winds
• Large mix of W/SW swells with NW tending W-W/SW winds Wed
• Easing surf Thu with variable tending S/SE winds

Recap

Tiny waves yesterday but today our inconsistent W/SW groundswell has come in a little better than the expected 1-1.5ft, with sets to 1-2ft.

This weekend and next week (Dec 18 - 24)

This morning's swell will fade tomorrow leaving tiny waves on the coast, but then we look at our slightly better W/SW groundswell on Sunday. This was generated by a strong polar low in our far swell window, around the Heard Island region.

It'll be inconsistent but fun 2ft sets are due again and winds will be favourable from the N/NE, shifting NW into the afternoon ahead of a W/SW change.

Into next week we'll see a good frontal progression and polar low firing up in our swell window, generating building levels of W/SW swell.

Two initial mid-latitude fronts will generate some mid-period W/SW swell for Monday and Tuesday respectively. Monday's swell looks to be 1-2ft, with Tuesday seeing 2ft+ waves, building further into the afternoon to 3ft.

Following this, the polar low will generate a great fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds in our medium-range swell window, south-west of Western Australia on the weekend, weakening slightly while projecting east towards us on the weekend. Continued W/SW gales projected up and into us into Tuesday will kick the size further with large 4-5ft sets due across Clifton on Wednesday, then easing slowly through the end of the week.

Winds look favourable through this period with gusty N/NW tending W/NW winds on Monday, W/NW tending strong W/SW-W Tuesday and NW tending W/SW Wednesday. Early Thursday looks clean with variable winds before S/SE winds kick in mid-morning.

Longer term the outlook is slow so work around the coming swells from Sunday. Have a great weekend!