Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th March)

Best Days: Selected locations tomorrow, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S/SW groundswell for tomorrow with light W/NW tending variable and then S/SE winds, easing Wed with N'ly winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Good new SW groundswell for Fri with fresh N/NE tending variable winds, easing Sat
• Smaller SW swell for late Sat and Sun AM

Recap

Clean, fun waves across the coast Saturday morning, tiny Sunday but ideal for beginners, even smaller today and near flat. The swell should have started to kick this afternoon but with a SW change.

This week and next (Mar 16 - 26)

Looking at the coming week and there's a few swell sources on the cards, the biggest and best for tomorrow, though winds are still a slight issue.

Currently, a strong polar low is projecting north-east up through our swell window, generating a fetch of severe-gale W/SW tending SW winds through our swell window.

This low formed on the weekend and we can expect strong, powerful surf tomorrow when it peaks with sets to 4-5ft+ across Clifton. Exposed breaks will be much larger but in the wake of the low we'll see easing SW winds (pre-dawn), likely tending light W/NW across Clifton, then variable ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

With this there should be plenty of options for the keen and experienced.

Wednesday will see the swell easing fairly steadily with a N'ly offshore ahead of strong E/NE sea breezes, dropping back from 3ft across Clifton.

Thursday will be clean but smaller along with a fresh N/NE breeze, strong E/NE into the afternoon.

A new spike of SW groundswell is now on the cards for Friday, generated by a deepening polar low south-west of us, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds but aimed at the polar shelf.

Still, we should see a good spike in swell to 2-3ft across Clifton Friday morning along with N/NE tending variable winds.

Following this another tight low looks to follow a similar path but with less intensity. A good new swell is due from this source Saturday afternoon but only to 2ft or so, easing Sunday. There'll be nothing significant on the cards following these swells into next week so it'll be worth making the most of them.