Lots of swell with lots of wind

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 1st March)

Best Days: Selected locations tomorrow, possibly early Friday, Saturday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building windy S/SW swell tomorrow with strong SW tending S/SW winds, easing Wed with a period of W'ly winds
  • New swell building Thu PM with NW tending SW winds, building further through Fri with strong SW winds, easing Sat with mod-fresh SW winds, cleaner Sun AM but small

Recap

Onshore winds and a tiny start to Saturday but into the late afternoon our new swell started to kick, peaking yesterday morning to a clean, strong 3-4ft across Clifton.

This swell has since eased back to a fun 2ft+ this morning.

This week and weekend (Mar 2 - 7)

Following the weekend's strong groundswell, we've now got a cold, windy swell on the way for tomorrow as a strengthening low pushes across us.

This will bring strong SW tending S/SW winds tomorrow and a peak in localised S/SW swell to 3-4ft, easing through Wednesday from 2-3ft.

Conditions should improve Wednesday as winds shift back to the W temporarily in the wake of the low but it'll be best in protected spots, wind affected at others.

Following tomorrow's swell, we'll see a broader, more prolonged and great polar front pushing up into the Tasman Sea Thursday through Friday. This will be through our southern swell window and we should see a drawn out fetch of strong to sub-gale force S/SW winds generating a moderate sized S/SW tending S swell.

An increase in size is due Thursday from the SW, reaching 2-3ft later in the day along with NW tending strong SW winds, bigger Friday and to 3-4ft out of the S/SW, with the best pulse of groundswell likely to see 5ft sets later in the day.

A drop in swell should then be seen Saturday from 3-4ft, fading Sunday.

Looking at the winds and a strong SW'ly will create issues Friday, with weaker, lingering SW winds Saturday. Sunday will become clean but be small and to 2ft or so.

Longer term we may see a good new swell next Tuesday, but more on this in the coming updates.