Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th July)

Best Days: Protected spots Monday, Tuesday morning

Recap

A small increase in fun but inconsistency S'ly swell yesterday, fading back to a tiny 1ft today.

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This week and next (Jul 11 - 19)

The surf will remain tiny into the end of the week as series of strong mid-latitude fronts push in across the south-east of the country, but we'll see some bigger developments from the weekend.

Firstly a strong front forming just within our western swell window before pushing north of it will produce a fetch of gale to near severe-gale W/SW winds tomorrow.

A new W/SW groundswell should be seen Saturday off this source, but only come in at 2ft across Clifton, under the model forecasts.

Unfortunately the storm creating this swell will move through during the early hours, bringing a strong onshore W/SW tending SW change and local increase in additional S/SW windswell.

Both swells are due to ease into Sunday morning, but our significant polar low will start pushing up and into us from early Sunday, bringing a building short-range W/SW swell through the day ahead of the long-period groundswell proper on Monday.

This low will form south-west of WA on Friday and generate a fetch of storm-force W/SW tending SW winds through our swell window, with the low weakening as it pushes up and across us on Sunday.

Onshore building surf with strong W/SW winds is expected on Sunday, reaching 3-5ft by late in the day, but being quite west in direction.

Monday morning is expected to reveal larger 6ft+ surf across Clifton with a better SW angle and strong but easing SW tending W/SW winds will favour protected locations. The swell will ease into the afternoon and drop steadily Tuesday likely from 3-4ft, with winds reverting back to the W/NW.

Following this we may see another windy swell later week, but we'll review this on Friday.