Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 19th September)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday from late morning, Saturday morning, early Monday, protected spots mid-next week

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday morning, but a new W/SW groundswell kicked into the mid-late afternoon as winds remained offshore. The swell should of held well into this morning but is on the ease.

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This week and weekend (Sep 20 - 23)

Our current W/SW groundswell should continue to ease through tomorrow with dropping 1-2ft sets under a NW tending W/NW breeze.

We've got an upgrade in the strong groundswell due late week across the state, with an intense polar low currently forming south of WA.

We'll see a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds projected east for over 24hours in our south-western swell window, producing a large long-period SW groundswell that's due to arrive Friday morning and build rapidly through the afternoon.

Clifton should kick to an easy 4ft before close of play and with a N/NW tending W/NW breeze.

The swell will peak through the evening and drop fairly quickly Saturday from 2ft to maybe 3ft if we're lucky with great offshore NW winds ahead of a gusty W/SW change during the middle of the day.

This change will signal the first in a series of strong polar fronts pushing through our swell window and up towards the Tasman Sea under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.

This first front will generate a good fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our our western swell window Friday and Saturday, passing under us Sunday.

We're looking at sets developing to a consistent 3ft through the day Sunday but with generally average winds from the W/SW tending SW as the front passes under us.

The swell is due to drop temporarily through Monday from 3ft with an early W/NW'ly, but a much stronger and slower moving polar storm will develop south of us, projecting a fetch of initial SW gales through our swell window, followed by severe-gale S/SW winds on Tuesday.

A large and powerful S/SW groundswell will be generated, building Tuesday and peaking Wednesday morning. Winds will be strong from the SW, favouring protected locations, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.