Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 4th August)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday morning, possibly early Tuesday, Wednesday morning

Recap

Fun clean 2ft waves yesterday morning with a swing in winds through the afternoon opening up more options.

Today the swell dropped a touch back to 1-2ft with nice conditions again.

This weekend and next week (Aug 5 - 11)

The weekend is expected to be generally small to tiny, with small background W/SW energy to 1.5ft on the sets through tomorrow, easing Sunday.

As touched on Wednesday, the models are incorrectly combining some very long-range and inconsistent swell from the Indian Ocean with the closer-range energy and over-forecasting the size tomorrow afternoon.

Conditions are looking great tomorrow with a N/NW tending fresh W/NW breeze, N/NE tending NW Sunday as the swell fades.

Also touched on Wednesday was the inconsistent long-period W'ly swell due Monday morning, with the storm pushing too far north and out of our swell window.

This is still the case and we'll be lucky to see 1ft waves Monday morning.

Of greater importance is the remnants of this storm moving east, projecting a fetch of strong polar S'ly winds and closer S/SE winds through our swell window Sunday and Monday.

This fetch will move fairly quickly east and with this the size of the S'ly swell will be limited.

We should see building S'ly energy later Sunday but with onshore winds, peaking Tuesday to 2-3ft but with persisting S/SW winds. There's an outside chance for an early W/NW'ly but more on this Monday.

The swell should then ease back through Wednesday from the 2ft range with offshore winds.

Longer term there's no significant polar systems firing up in our swell window with tiny amounts of SE swell on the cards from a stalling low over New Zealand. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!