Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 15th March)

Best Days: Beginners early tomorrow, early Monday

Recap

A tiny start to yesterday but into the afternoon a strong new swell kicked in as winds swung back offshore from the N'th.

This swell has held this morning with clean 2ft waves on the coast, but we should see an easing trend into this afternoon.

This week and weekend (Mar 16 - 19)

Our current swell will ease off this afternoon, back from 1-1.5ft max across Clifton with an early offshore wind before a W/SW change moves through.

This change will generate a short-lived fetch of strong W/SW winds kicking up a tiny increase in W/SW swell to 1ft+ through Friday but with NW tending E/NE winds.

The swell is due to fade Saturday from a tiny 1ft, if that, with N'ly winds.

We then look ahead to the very inconsistent but strong W/SW groundswell event due later Sunday and Monday.

A vigorous polar low formed in our far far swell window south-east of South Africa Monday but has since moved more east.

The low is still in our far swell window and will generate a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, possibly near storm-force on the edge of our western swell window, before pushing north-east towards WA.

This system isn't ideal but the strength is significant and we should see a very inconsistent 1-1.5ft wave later Sunday but with onshore winds, peaking Monday morning to 1-2ft with an early N'ly ahead of a mid-morning S'ly change.

A better swell is on the cards for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, produced by a strong polar low to our south-west.

A pre-frontal fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds will develop south-west of WA, followed by post-frontal gale to severe-gale W/SW winds.

The pre-frontal fetch should generate a swell for Wednesday morning, reaching 1-2ft through the day, with the secondary fetch producing a better pulse to 2-3ft by dark, easing from 2ft+ Thursday morning.

Winds look to be an issue though due to a weak trough off our East Coast, bringing E/NE winds Wednesday afternoon and S'ly winds Thursday. We'll check this again Friday.