Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27th July)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday morning keen surfers, Saturday

Recap

A small and slow start to the day yesterday as expected with clean 2ft sets, but a strong new W/SW groundswell kicked through the day as winds tended more offshore from the NW.

This morning the swell was a bit smaller than expected with leftover 3ft sets under a light W'ly. The Surf Coast saw a reinforcing swell fill in through the day keeping solid sets hitting the region, and I'd expect the same swell would of filled in across the South Arm.

This week and weekend (Jul 28 - 31)

Our close-range W/SW swell due for tomorrow has been downgraded a touch with the models forecast of storm-force winds under us now only due to be severe-gale and quick moving to the east.

Still we should see a strong increase in swell tomorrow morning with good 3-5ft sets due early morning, easing back steadily through the day with smaller 2ft+ surf due into Friday morning. Offshore W'ly tending W/NW wins are due most of the day.

Another strengthening cold front moving in Friday though will produce a fetch of severe-gale SW winds under us Friday and be longer-lived.

A good increase in SW swell is due Friday afternoon but with onshore winds, peaking Saturday morning to 3-4ft+ under NW winds. A quick drop in size is expected again as winds tend N/NE into the afternoon.

Sunday should then be much smaller with early offshores ahead of a W/SW change.

Longer term the storm track will be too far north of us until mid-next week when we could see a cut-off low developing to our west, but more on this Friday.