Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st March)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period, smallest Wednesday

Recap

The low moving across us on Friday was much stronger than anticipated, and with this we see a solid kick in short-range swell to the 3ft range, but with onshore winds.

Cleaner conditions were seen into Sunday as the swell eased back.

Today the surf was hanging around 1-2ft, with offshore winds again through the morning.

This week and weekend (Mar 22 - 27)

Tomorrow's long-period SW groundswell is still on track, with satellite observations over the weekend confirming a fetch of 50kt+ winds aimed through our south-western swell window.

This swell is due to peak tomorrow morning to a strong 3ft across Clifton, easing back through the afternoon with much smaller 1-2ft leftovers Wednesday morning.

Conditions should be clean tomorrow with a light N/NW offshore, tending variable ahead of mid-late afternoon sea breezes. Wednesday morning will be clean again ahead of a fresh SW change.

From Thursday we'll see some serious groundswell impacting the state as a series of vigorous frontal systems fire up through the Souther Ocean under the influence of a strong node of the Long Wave Trough.

The first flurry is due through tomorrow and Wednesday, with a good kick in SW groundswell due Thursday, building to 2-3ft across Clifton under NW offshores ahead of weak sea breezes.

A secondary vigorous polar low will then generate an initial pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds followed closely by storm-force SW winds.

A reinforcing W/SW groundswell should be seen through Friday from the W/NW gales, keeping Clifton kicking at 2-3ft, while a larger SW groundswell pulse is then SW Saturday to a strong 4-5ft across Clifton, peaking through the morning.

One final vigorous and deepening low pushing in from the west Friday evening and early Saturday will aim a fetch of severe-gale to storm SW winds through our swell window.

This should produce a reinforcing SW groundswell for later in the day, peaking overnight and easing from 3-4ft Sunday morning.

Conditions are due to be clean most of Friday with NW offshores, tending W/NW ahead of a W/SW change.

Saturday looks to be clean all day with NW tending W/NW winds and then great conditions Sunday under N/NW tending variable breezes.

Longer term there's plenty more swell on the cards for next week, but more on this Wednesday.