Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th February)

Best Days: Friday morning, Sunday in protected spots, Monday

Recap

A new kick in swell to 2ft on the sets yesterday morning, holding a similar 1-2ft this morning with light offshore winds.

This week and weekend (Feb 11 - 14)

The last two days of waves are expected to ease back more to the 1-1.5ft range through tomorrow, with a new pulse of W/SW groundswell through Friday due to a fun 1-2ft.

This is being produced by a cold front moving in from the west generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds.

Offshore N'ly winds should create clean conditions Friday ahead of fresh E'ly sea breezes, easing into Saturday with offshore NW winds for most of the day.

Into Sunday our 'bombing low' swell is still due, but the size has been knocked down a touch.

This is due to the structure of the rapidly deepening low not being ideal. In saying this we'll still see a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds generated in our south-western swell window on Friday followed by a weaker trailing fetch of strong W/SW winds.

A good strong pulse of SW groundswell will be produced by the low, filling in strongly after dawn Sunday and reaching 3ft on the sets across Clifton before easing back to the 2ft+ range Monday with a reinforcing W/SW swell.

Winds are due to vary quite a bit Sunday with a passing trough through the region. Early NW winds are due to swing W/SW through the morning and then likely W/NW into the afternoon with another approaching front.

Monday looks fun with NW winds most of the day ahead of a late SW change.

Longer term small to tiny amounts of W/SW swell are due most of next week from persistent but relatively weak polar frontal activity, with a stormy and large S/SE swell also on the cards for Wednesday/Thursday.

This will be related to an upper atmosphere cold pool moving over warmer than normal sea surface temperatures directly off our East Coast resulting in the formation of a deep and powerful low pressure system. More on this Friday though.