Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th January)

Best Days: Wednesday and Thursday morning exposed spots to the S/SE swell, Saturday morning

Recap

Good clean 2-3ft waves Saturday morning with a drop in swell from Friday, while a reinforcing SW swell kept similar sized sets hitting the coast Sunday morning with improving conditions through the morning.

Today the swell was back to a tiny 1-1.5ft with clean conditions again before S'ly sea breezes kicked in.

This week (Jan 12 – 15)

A small kick in size to 2ft is expected tomorrow, generated by a small mid-latitude low pushing in from the Indian Ocean, with it currently weakening to our south-west.

Unfortunately besides a period of variable winds at first light, a fresh S/SW change is due to move through around dawn, creating poor conditions.

The rare S/SE groundswell for Wednesday is still on track, with a stalling polar low south of New Zealand producing a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force S/SE winds the last day or two, confirmed by satellite.

Clifton should build to a strong 3ft through the afternoon, while exposed breaks to the south-east are due to see bigger 4ft+ sets.

Winds are still due to be from the N'th tending N//NE through the day before shifting back to the N/NW late.

The S/SE swell should ease through Thursday from 2-3ft at Clifton, with 3ft to maybe 4ft sets at exposed breaks with gusty W'ly winds ahead of a SW change.

This change will be linked to a strong mid-latitude low moving in from the west, aiming a fetch of less than favourable but strong gale-force S/SW winds through our swell window.

A good pulse of S/SW groundswell should be generated for Friday to 2-3ft but with poor SW winds.

Saturday morning should be cleaner with a morning W/NW'ly and easing S/SW swell from the 2ft range.

Longer term, some good polar frontal activity should generate fun pulses of SW swell in the 1-2ft range from Sunday through Tuesday morning, with a larger groundswell on the cards for the middle to end of next week. More on this Wednesday.