Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 11th May)

Best Days: Later Tuesday before winds swing onshore, protected spots Wednesday through Friday with a good S/SE groundswell Friday, Saturday morning

Recap

Saturday started fun and clean to 2-3ft but a stronger W/SW groundswell filled in through the day as winds remained good into the evening.

Come Sunday the swell dropped back considerably to a smaller 1-2ft under N/NW winds. Another late kick in W/SW swell was seen as winds tended W/NW. This swell has held into this morning to 2-3ft under all day offshores.

This week (May 12 - 15)

A new S'ly swell due this afternoon off the back of the low that produced this morning's W/SW swell is expected to back off into tomorrow morning with the swell bottoming out at a small 1ft to occasionally 2ft.

A very large but very west groundswell is due to arrive through tomorrow afternoon across the state, generated by a deep and powerful low pressure system that developed south of WA this morning.

Satellite observations have already picked up a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds generated in our western swell window, with the low expected to push east while continuing to produce a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds on the edge of our western swell window.

The strength of this system should slightly overcome the westerly nature of the swell with Clifton expected to build late in the day to an inconsistent 3-4ft.

A peak is due early Wednesday but in the 3-5ft range, but a closer-range SW swell should be in the mix from the backside of the low. A fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW winds are due to be projected through our swell window overnight Tuesday, followed by a secondary push of SW gales up and into us during the day and afternoon Wednesday.

This should produce two separate SW swells, the first for Wednesday morning to 3-5ft, with the next swell kicking later Wednesday to a similar size, easing from 4-5ft Thursday morning.

Winds are looking poor though with a strong NW tending gale-force SW breeze later tomorrow afternoon and then W/SW winds Wednesday and SW breezes Thursday and Friday.

One final pulse of large S/SE groundswell is due from the backside of the frontal progression moving through this week.

A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force S'ly winds will be projected up through our southern swell window Wednesday evening and Thursday, generating a large 4-6ft of S/SE groundswell for Friday morning, easing into the afternoon. As touched on above though winds will be onshore and from the SW.

This weekend onwards (May 16 onwards)

The S/SE groundswell should still be around Saturday morning, easing from the 3ft range with better NW winds.

Longer term there's nothing significant on the cards at all until Tuesday/Wednesday next week when a new SW swell is on the cards. Only in the 2ft range or so and with favourable winds, but we'll review this Wednesday.