Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th February)

Best Days: Late-morning/midday Thursday, Friday afternoon, Saturday morning

Recap

Tiny clean waves at dawn Saturday before the wind came up and then near flat conditions with a moderate cross-shore wind Sunday morning.

Today the swell remained effectively flat but there is some slightly better news later in the week.

This week and weekend (Feb 17 - 22)

Tomorrow and Wednesday will remain tiny to flat with funky winds, but come Thursday a new long-range but very inconsistent SW groundswell is due to fill in.

The source of this swell was a slow moving and strong polar low that formed south-west of WA, with the system now weakening south of WA in our far swell window.

Clifton should build to a very inconsistent 1-2ft through Thursday under N/NW tending E/NE winds, therefore a late-morning/midday surf will probably produce the best results.

The swell will likely become tiny again into Friday morning, but a better W/SW groundswell is due to build through the afternoon, peaking into the evening before easing Saturday.

This will be generated by a stronger polar low firing up further east and pushing closer towards us compared to the weekend's system.

Clifton should build to a good 2ft Friday evening and then ease from 1-2ft Saturday morning.

Afternoon sea breezes will create bumpy conditions Friday afternoon, but Saturday morning looks fun under a N/NW tending NE breeze. Sunday is due to be tiny but clean through the morning.

The longer term outlook is more promising with a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough moves in from the west and stalls in the Bight. This should fire up a strong and powerful but slow moving polar low south-west of the country over the weekend, with some better W/SW groundswell likely for Clifton to 2-3ft through early next week.

We'll have another look at this Wednesday though.