Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Wednesday 24th September)

Best Days: Friday morning, Saturday, Tuesday next week onwards

Recap

Tiny surf continued through yesterday, with a slight kick in size through the afternoon ahead of a drop back to 1-1.5ft today. Some better swell is on the way so read on.

This week and weekend (Sep 25 - 28)

Tomorrow will start out tiny and less than ideal with W'ly winds that should swing W/NW through the afternoon as a tiny long-range W/SW swell fills in.

Friday is looking better for waves but conditions will be dicey. A new long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell will build through the day and peak into the afternoon. Unfortunately a secondary reinforcing SW swell from a polar low isn't on the cards any more with just a weak front now due to move through Friday bringing average winds and not much additional swell.

Still, Clifton should build to an inconsistent 2-3ft Friday afternoon from 2ft during the morning before easing from 2ft+ Saturday.

Winds as mentioned above will swing from an early W/NW'ly around to the SW during the day as the swell builds, while Saturday looks great with N/NW tending fresh N/NE winds.

Come Sunday there's not much swell likely to be left over and winds will be strong from the N'th.

Next week onwards (Sep 29 onwards)

As touched on last update, some better W/SW groundswell is on the cards for next week as a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough moves in from the west early next week.

With this we should see a couple of vigorous polar fronts steered and strengthened from south-west of WA, up through the Bight and then across and under us Monday/Tuesday next week.

The models are still moving around a little on the positioning and make up of each front, but an initial acute W'ly swell is likely later Monday and more so Tuesday ahead of a better aligned and more consistent W/SW swell Wednesday and Thursday. Winds are looking to be generally from the W/NW to W/SW, but we'll review all of this again Friday.