Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Wednesday 20th Aug)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday morning, Saturday exposed spots, Sunday afternoon exposed spots, Tuesday morning

Recap

Monday afternoon's strong kick in SW groundswell eased back from 2ft+ on Tuesday, and a reinforcing SW swell has kept 2ft sets hitting Clifton this morning. A new SW groundswell should of shown later today to 2-3ft but conditions are a little bumpy with a light to moderate onshore breeze.

This week (Aug 21 - 22)

Another good pulse of SW groundswell is due across the state tomorrow morning, generated by strong and favourable polar frontal activity the last few days. Clifton should offer inconsistent 3ft+ sets with N/NW winds during the morning ahead of a swing to the N/NE into the afternoon as the swell eases.

A steady drop in size is due into Friday from 2ft as fresh N/NE winds open up more options across the region.

This weekend onwards (Aug 23 onwards)

The swell will bottom out through Saturday as fresh N/NE winds persist, while into Sunday a long-range but very inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to fill in.

This swell will be a monster for WA and Indo, generated by a very strong and broad frontal progression in the Southern Indian Ocean, but the fetch has been north of us for the most part and not well aligned in our swell window at any stage.

In saying this, the sheer size of the swell may result in inconsistent 1ft to possibly 2ft sets showing across Clifton Sunday afternoon under N/NE winds.

This swell will drop through Monday, but a reinforcing W/SW groundswell on Tuesday may offer 1-2ft sets across Clifton again during the morning. The source of this swell will be an unfavourable fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds pushing south-east from WA towards the polar shelf. So again don't get your expectations up.

Longer term we may see another very inconsistent and small long-range W/SW groundswell similar to Sunday afternoon's pushing in Thursday, but we'll review this again Friday.